Over the past 5 years, we have had a named storm form before the official June 1st start of the Atlantic hurricane season every year. This year has the potential to keep the streak running! This morning the NHC is giving a disturbance along a stalled frontal boundary over the Bahamas a 70% chance of forming into a tropical system over the next few days.
Below is the Euro model for mid-day on Sunday. This particular model has a good track record of accurately forecasting small tropical systems. Based on this forecast we could see a decent shot of easterly swell for NE Florida on Monday/Tuesday with favorable wind conditions expected.
The GFS model is showing a more robust tropical system forming earlier, and a little further north on Sunday while still solidly in our weather window. This bodes well for some ground swell Monday/Tuesday as well, so let’s hope our local wind conditions cooperate!! We’ve earned it.
Looking further out, there is potential for a secondary low to form off Hatteras as Arthur heads out south of Newfoundland. We could see yet another round of solid NE ground swell later next week, with a bit of shadowing for NE Florida and more size from Cape Canaveral southward. Still too early to tell how our local wind conditions will play out…but it’s definitely something to keep a close eye on.
~ The Weather Mon