FLORIDA EAST COAST MARINE WEATHER

A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area Monday with a strong surge of northwesterly winds filling in Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread local waters late Monday evening. With an increasing likelihood for frequent gale force gusts offshore Monday night, a Gale Watch has been issued for the offshore waters. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance arrives Thursday night.

7-DAY SURF FORECAST

MONDAY:  Showers and a few storms in the morning with wind starting out lightest from the west early, then clocking NW/NNW 9-18 mph in the afternoon with waves bottoming out at 0-1/2′ in miniscule east mix swell.

TUESDAY(19Mar): A chilly morning (mid 40’sF) with wind NNW/N 10-18 mph with waves 1-1.5′ (+ south am) in close period (6 sec) NNE wind swell. Wind should lay down some in the afternoon, but the day will still be unseasonably chilly with high only in the low 60’sF.

WEDNESDAY: Another uncharacteristically cold early spring morning (upper 40’sF) wind light offshore early, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7 sec) NE/E swell.

THURSDAY:

FRIDAY(22Mar):

SATURDAY:

SUNDAY:

7-10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK

While we will generally see small surf mid-month, a pair of brief pulses of N/NE swell will filter in on the 19th and again on the 23rd. Then, the last week in March modeling suggests strong high pressure will build off the New England coast, possibly combining with an open ocean low south of Bermuda, providing a decent/rotating NE/E fetch that will build a multi-day swell. Models suggest this scenario will play out again the first week in April. Surf temps north of the Cape that had recently climbed into the mid-60’s NE Florida and upper 60’s Daytona to NSb will probably punt a degree or two over the next week or so, not cresting the magical 70-degree mark until mid-April… stay tuned!

NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

NWPS significant wave height and direction 5-day forecast for Jacksonville to St. Augustine nearshore coastal waters
Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast discussion.

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

St Augustine buoy 14-day forecast

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a
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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
Here is a good link to monitor open ocean storm systems in the distant Atlantic:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map

Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate intense convection.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
Last (but not least), here is a drone footage of tow-in session @ Nazare
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).