FLORIDA EAST COAST MARINE WEATHER

Winds will shift N/NE Friday as high pressure builds over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the frontal passage yesterday. Winds and seas will begin to diminish Friday afternoon into the evening as high pressure builds directly over the area. The weekend will be mostly sunny and dry, with seasonably mild temperatures. High pressure will shift southeast of local waters Saturday night, resulting in southwesterly winds developing on Easter Sunday, gradually strengthening through the first half of the work week.

7-DAY SURF FORECAST

FRIDAY: Wind lightest from the NNW/N early, becoming NNE/NE 9-16 mph later in the morning into early afternoon, then easing some later in the day with waves 1-2′ (+/-0.5′ with best size south) in mixed period (6-11 sec) NE/ENE swell.

SATURDAY: Wind light/variable early, becoming south 8-15 mph later in the morning through the afternoon with waves 1.5-2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ long period (8-10 sec) NE/ENE swell.

EASTER SUNDAY (31Mar): Wind lightest early, then increasing from the SW later in the morning, becoming south 7-13 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in diminishing moderate to long period (9-10 sec) ENE swell.

MONDAY(1April… no-foolin’): Wind lightest from the S/SW in the morning, becoming south 7-14 mph in the afternoon with waves well overhead (on RC Surfer and GI Joe).

TUESDAY: Wind lightest early, then increasing from the SW 8-15 mph in the afternoon with waves a foot or so in marginal mixed period ENE swell.

WEDNESDAY: Wind increasing from the SW/WSW 12-17 mph with waves 1/2′ to flat.

THURSDAY(4Apr): Wind increasing from the NW 11-22 mph, becoming more north in the afternoon and easing some with waves 1/2-1′ in mixed period, angled north swell.

FRIDAY: Wind light north in the morning, becoming NE/ENE 5-12 mph with waves up some during the day to 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to long period (8-10 sec) N/NE swell.

SATURDAY: Wind lightest early, then NE 7-15 mph with waves 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in long period (11 sec) NE ground swell.

SUNDAY(7Apr): Wind lightest early, then ENE 9-16 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (+/-0.5′) in long period (12 sec) ENE swell.

7-10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK

The last week in March strong high pressure over the New England region combined with a strong open ocean low retrograding south of Bermuda to provide a decent NE/ENE fetch that built the sizeable multi-day swell. Models suggest a similar scenario may play out again (further out in the Atlantic) April 11-14 when another low forms off New England then drops south while intensifying, then spins nearly stationary near Bermuda, meandering for several days as a weakening “cut-off” low in our ENE swell window. Surf temps north of the Cape that had climbed into the mid-60’s NE Florida and upper 60’s Daytona to NSB earlier in March will be held down into the mid-60’s through Easter into the first week of April, not seriously approaching the magical 70-degree mark until later in the month … stay tuned!

NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

NWPS significant wave height and direction 5-day forecast for Jacksonville to St. Augustine nearshore coastal waters
Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast discussion.

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

St Augustine buoy 14-day forecast

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a
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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
Here is a good link to monitor open ocean storm systems in the distant Atlantic:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map

Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate intense convection.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
Last (but not least), here is a drone footage of tow-in session @ Nazare
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).