Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast
(Please note the following disclaimer): This surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down) based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that influence potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…
MONDAY: Wind NE 10-17 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (+south am) in close to moderate period (6-8 sec) NE/ENE swell,
TUESDAY(19Oct): Wind lightest early, then ENE 7-16 mph with waves dropping down to 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) ENE/E swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind light early, becoming E/ESE 6-15 mph with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) east mix swell.
THURSDAY: Wind light/variable in the morning, becoming ESE/SE 5-16 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ESE swell.
FRIDAY(22Oct): Wind light/variable in the morning, becoming SE 7-14 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ESE swell.
SATURDAY: Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming north 8-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) mixed direction swell
SUNDAY: Wind north early, becoming NE and increasing to 15-20 mph with surf building to 1.5-2′ (+pm) in close period (5-6 sec) NE wind swell.
MONDAY(25Oct): Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph with surf 2-3′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7 sec) ENE wind swell.
General/Coastal Weather Discussion
Thar she blows! A strong cold front will barrel through Florida early Sunday morning, with a freshening northerly flow kicking in behind the front. This scenario will build a moderate/rotating swell to the start of the work week.
Tropical Weather Discussion
Nothing much currently going on in the tropics. The infrared satellite of the tropics shows several non-organized areas of convection scattered about the Atlantic Basin.
Next? The western Caribbean Sea, southern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic are the favored regions for late season tropical development until increasingly stronger frontal activity later in October and November scours out the remaining tropical moisture. There is some model hinting that a system may spin up near PR in late October just before Halloween (Trick or Treat?). I’ll continue to monitor model runs and update the surf forecast as systems warrant…. stay tuned.
Here’s a great link to Levi’s Blog which periodically discusses in detail activity in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season… stay tuned for updates!
Here is the Colorado State University 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast (issued April 8th) calling for the Atlantic Basin to be more active than normal, and NOAA’s Forecast (issued May 20th) is calling for more of the same.
Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.
NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea (favored areas for early season development) continue to climb into the low/mid 80sF.
Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion