Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast

The surf forecast is based on a range of the average height of the highest one third of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves.

(Please note the following disclaimer): The surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down) based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that illustrate potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.

FRIDAY: Wind lightest from the south early in the morning, becoming S/SE 5-14 mph in the afternoon with waves bottoming out early at 1/2-occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) ESE swell. Scattered afternoon showers and a few t-storms will push up the Florida peninsula from the south in the afternoon, possibly signaling the start of Florida’s wet season over the weekend.

SATURDAY: Wind lightest from the SSW/S early, becoming SSE 6-15 mph with waves starting out around 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8-9 sec) E/SE swell, up some by mid-day with some 1.5′ set waves filtering in on the incoming tide. Showers and a few embedded t-storms will erupt inland mid-day, then spread to the coast as the afternoon progresses. Wind could become erratic in or near the stronger storms.

SUNDAY(22May): Wind lightest early, then freshening from the SE 7-16 mph by afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (8-9 sec) E/SE swell. A few widely scattered showers will build just inland of the beaches late morning, with the sea breeze kicking in to push the developing t-storms inland during the afternoon.

MONDAY: Wind light/variable early in the morning, becoming E/SE 5-14 mph late morning through the afternoon with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in lingering, then diminishing moderate period (9 sec) ESE swell.

TUESDAY: Wind light south in the morning, becoming SE 6-15 mph in the afternoon with waves occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8-9 sec) ESE swell. A hint of minor-sized, inconsistent long period (10 sec) ENE ground swell may start to filter in late.

WEDNESDAY(25May): Wind lightest from the S/SE early, then freshening from the ESE/E 8-15 mph with waves up during the day to 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (6-7 sec) ESE swell with a minor long period (11 sec) ENE/E ground swell component.

THURSDAY: Wind lightest early, then SE 7-15 mph with waves up some more to 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ longer period (7-occ 10 sec) mixed E/ESE swell.

FRIDAY:

SATURDAY(28May):

General Weather Forecast Model Discussion: 

With the approach of the June 1 official start to the 2022 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, we monitor the favored early season areas in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico for signs of life. Medium range forecast models keep these tropical regions quite through the remainder of May, though a weak non-tropical low in the mid-Atlantic is forecast to retrograde east of Bermuda next week, contributing a minor long period component to a modest uptick in E/SE swell by mid-week:

At the end of the latest GFS run, the suggestion that something will form in the western Caribbean Sea and slowly drift N/NE while strengthening is still being made, however formation, then intensification, is extended into the first week in June. Check out this screen grab for the weekend of June 4/5:
Regardless of what may or may not develop and where it may go, the ongoing moisture feed from the western Caribbean Sea across the Florida peninsula signals the tropical wet season is underway. Stay tuned!
Follow CSU’s Dr. Phil K’s tweets for interesting comments on the evolving Atlantic hurricane season.

Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast speculation.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

_________________________________________________________________________________________

This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
To monitor real-time wind speed/direction, here is the 10-meter wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) map for Florida:
 
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity.

Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
_________________________________________________________
Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).
_________________________________________________________