Neptune’s Spear at Sunset (Dean 8/7/2020)

Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast

(Please note the following disclaimer): This surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down) based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that influence potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…

THURSDAY(13May): Cooler with wind ramping up from the NE 15-23 mph with surf building during the day to 1.5-2.5′ (+pm) in fresh close period (5-6 sec) NE wind swell.

FRIDAY: Wind N/NE 15-22 mph with surf up some more to 2-3′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (6-7 sec) NE swell.

SATURDAY: Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph with waves 2.5-3.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) NE/ENE swell.

SUNDAY(16May): Wind ENE/E 8-17 mph with waves 2-3′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to longer period (8-9 sec) ENE swell.

MONDAY: Wind east 7-16 mph with waves 1.5-2.5′ (occ+) in long period (9-10 sec) ENE/E ground swell.

TUESDAY: Wind E/SE 6-15 mph with waves 1.5-occ 2.5′ in moderate to long period (9-11 sec) east ground swell.

WEDNESDAY(19May): Wind lightest from the SE early, then ESE 7-16 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (occ+) in moderate to long period (9-11 sec) east ground swell.

Coastal Weather Discussion

A late season “cold” front will drop into north Florida early Thursday, then wash out down the Florida peninsula. Strong high pressure.sliding off the mid-Atlantic coast will bridge the decaying frontal boundary, inducing a strong onshore surge Thursday afternoon. The onshore flow will continue for several days before clocking more E/SE and moderating over the weekend. This will build a significant NE/E wind swell that will carry through the weekend and linger to start the following work week while spreading out and cleaning up some as the onshore flow eases. There is a hint that the summer rainy season may kick in early, and the first tropical wave (of the 2021 Atlantic season) could evolve in the southern Gulf of Mexico before Memorial Day weekend. Stay tuned for tweaks!

Tropical Weather Discussion

The historic 2020 Hurricane season “officially” ended with the last tropical weather outlook issued December 1st

Here is the Colorado State University 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast (issued April 8th) calling for the Atlantic Basin.

Please see the National Hurricane Center and Central Florida Hurricane Center for the latest tropical weather outlook.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

General Tropical/Coastal Weather Forecasts and Discussion

Here are links a pair of great sites which monitor and discuss tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin: Levi’s Tropical Tidbits blog and Central Florida Hurricane Center (CFHC)

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast offshore buoys for current conditions: St. Augustine , Fernandina Beach , Canaveral near shore and Canaveral east

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

_______________________________________________________

The forecast for primary swell height and period at the offshore buoys is currently down. Here is the explanation from StormSurf
This map illustrates sea height analysis/forecast for the Atlantic Ocean just north of the northern Bahamas off the southeast Florida coast:

map n/a

___________________________________________________________________________
To monitor real-time wind speed/direction, here is the 10-meter wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) map for Florida:
 
________________________________________________________________________________
This real-time sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
This surface weather map illustrates surface pressure (mb), associated storm systems and fronts over the southeast US and near shore Atlantic Ocean:
_______________________________________________________
FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
Atlantic Ocean SST’s off Florida’s east coast have warmed nicely into the mid-70’s the first 10 days in May after hoovering in the upper 60’s in April.
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX are climbing into the upper 70’s in May and should reach 80F by the start of hurricane season.

_____________________________________________________________________________

The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity.

Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
______________________________________________________
Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).
______________________________________________________