Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast
The surf forecast is based on a range of the average height of the highest one third of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves.
(Please note the following disclaimer): The surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down) based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that illustrate potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.
FRIDAY: Wind lightest from the south early in the morning, becoming S/SE 5-14 mph in the afternoon with waves bottoming out early at 1/2-occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) ESE swell. Scattered afternoon showers and a few t-storms will push up the Florida peninsula from the south in the afternoon, possibly signaling the start of Florida’s wet season over the weekend.
SATURDAY: Wind lightest from the SSW/S early, becoming SSE 6-15 mph with waves starting out around 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8-9 sec) E/SE swell, up some by mid-day with some 1.5′ set waves filtering in on the incoming tide. Showers and a few embedded t-storms will erupt inland mid-day, then spread to the coast as the afternoon progresses. Wind could become erratic in or near the stronger storms.
SUNDAY(22May): Wind lightest early, then freshening from the SE 7-16 mph by afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (8-9 sec) E/SE swell. A few widely scattered showers will build just inland of the beaches late morning, with the sea breeze kicking in to push the developing t-storms inland during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Wind light/variable early in the morning, becoming E/SE 5-14 mph late morning through the afternoon with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in lingering, then diminishing moderate period (9 sec) ESE swell.
TUESDAY: Wind light south in the morning, becoming SE 6-15 mph in the afternoon with waves occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8-9 sec) ESE swell. A hint of minor-sized, inconsistent long period (10 sec) ENE ground swell may start to filter in late.
WEDNESDAY(25May): Wind lightest from the S/SE early, then freshening from the ESE/E 8-15 mph with waves up during the day to 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (6-7 sec) ESE swell with a minor long period (11 sec) ENE/E ground swell component.
THURSDAY: Wind lightest early, then SE 7-15 mph with waves up some more to 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ longer period (7-occ 10 sec) mixed E/ESE swell.
General Weather Forecast Model Discussion:
With the approach of the June 1 official start to the 2022 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, we monitor the favored early season areas in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico for signs of life. Medium range forecast models keep these tropical regions quite through the remainder of May, though a weak non-tropical low in the mid-Atlantic is forecast to retrograde east of Bermuda next week, contributing a minor long period component to a modest uptick in E/SE swell by mid-week:
Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast speculation.
Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.
NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.
Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion