Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast

(Please note the following disclaimer): This surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down) based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that influence potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…

MONDAY: Wind NE 10-17 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (+south am) in close to moderate period (6-8 sec) NE/ENE swell,

TUESDAY(19Oct): Wind lightest early, then ENE 7-16 mph with waves dropping down to 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) ENE/E swell.

WEDNESDAY: Wind light early, becoming E/ESE 6-15 mph with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) east mix swell.

THURSDAY: Wind light/variable in the morning, becoming ESE/SE 5-16 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ESE swell.

FRIDAY(22Oct): Wind light/variable in the morning, becoming SE 7-14 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ESE swell.

SATURDAY: Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming north 8-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) mixed direction swell

SUNDAY: Wind north early, becoming NE and increasing to 15-20 mph with surf building to 1.5-2′ (+pm) in close period (5-6 sec) NE wind swell.

MONDAY(25Oct): Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph with surf 2-3′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7 sec) ENE wind swell.

General/Coastal Weather Discussion

Thar she blows! A strong cold front will barrel through Florida early Sunday morning, with a freshening northerly flow kicking in behind the front. This scenario will build a moderate/rotating swell to the start of the work week.

Tropical Weather Discussion

Nothing much currently going on in the tropics. The infrared satellite of the tropics shows several non-organized areas of convection scattered about the Atlantic Basin.

Next? The western Caribbean Sea, southern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic are the favored regions for late season tropical development until increasingly stronger frontal activity later in October and November scours out the remaining tropical moisture. There is some model hinting that a system may spin up near PR in late October just before Halloween (Trick or Treat?). I’ll continue to monitor model runs and update the surf forecast as systems warrant…. stay tuned.

Here’s a great link to Levi’s Blog which periodically discusses in detail activity in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season… stay tuned for updates!

Here is the Colorado State University 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast (issued April 8th) calling for the Atlantic Basin to be more active than normal, and NOAA’s Forecast (issued May 20th) is calling for more of the same.

Please see the National Hurricane Center and Central Florida Hurricane Center for the latest tropical weather outlook.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a

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To monitor real-time wind speed/direction, here is the 10-meter wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) map for Florida:
 
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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
Atlantic Ocean SST’s off Florida’s east coast have warmed to near 80F to start hurricane season.
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea (favored areas for early season development) continue to climb into the low/mid 80sF.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity.

Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).
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