Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast
(Please note the following disclaimer): This surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down) based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that influence potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…
THURSDAY(13May): Cooler with wind ramping up from the NE 15-23 mph with surf building during the day to 1.5-2.5′ (+pm) in fresh close period (5-6 sec) NE wind swell.
FRIDAY: Wind N/NE 15-22 mph with surf up some more to 2-3′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (6-7 sec) NE swell.
SATURDAY: Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph with waves 2.5-3.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) NE/ENE swell.
SUNDAY(16May): Wind ENE/E 8-17 mph with waves 2-3′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to longer period (8-9 sec) ENE swell.
MONDAY: Wind east 7-16 mph with waves 1.5-2.5′ (occ+) in long period (9-10 sec) ENE/E ground swell.
TUESDAY: Wind E/SE 6-15 mph with waves 1.5-occ 2.5′ in moderate to long period (9-11 sec) east ground swell.
WEDNESDAY(19May): Wind lightest from the SE early, then ESE 7-16 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (occ+) in moderate to long period (9-11 sec) east ground swell.
Coastal Weather Discussion
A late season “cold” front will drop into north Florida early Thursday, then wash out down the Florida peninsula. Strong high pressure.sliding off the mid-Atlantic coast will bridge the decaying frontal boundary, inducing a strong onshore surge Thursday afternoon. The onshore flow will continue for several days before clocking more E/SE and moderating over the weekend. This will build a significant NE/E wind swell that will carry through the weekend and linger to start the following work week while spreading out and cleaning up some as the onshore flow eases. There is a hint that the summer rainy season may kick in early, and the first tropical wave (of the 2021 Atlantic season) could evolve in the southern Gulf of Mexico before Memorial Day weekend. Stay tuned for tweaks!
Tropical Weather Discussion
The historic 2020 Hurricane season “officially” ended with the last tropical weather outlook issued December 1st
Here is the Colorado State University 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast (issued April 8th) calling for the Atlantic Basin.
Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.
NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links
General Tropical/Coastal Weather Forecasts and Discussion
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Sea surface temps in the GOMEX are climbing into the upper 70’s in May and should reach 80F by the start of hurricane season.
Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion