Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast
(Please note the following disclaimer): This surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down)- based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that influence potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…
SATURDAY: Wind light early, then SE 7-13 mph with waves starting out 1/2-occ 1′ in east swell, up during the afternoon to 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ/inc long period (8-14 sec) ENE/E swell.
SUNDAY(28Feb): Wind SW/S 8-14 mph with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to long period (8-14 sec) ENE/ESE mix swell.
MONDAY(1Mar): Wind SW/WSW 7-16 mph with waves 1-occ 1.5′ in moderate to occ/inc longer period (9-13 sec) east swell.
TUESDAY: Wind W/WNW 6-13 mph in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1′ (occ/inc+) in moderate to occ/inc longer period (9-12 sec) ENE/Ex swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind clocking NE/ENE 10-20 mph with waves up during the day to 1.5-2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) NE/ENE swell.
THURSDAY(4Mar): Wind backing NE/N 10-20 mph with waves 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed close to moderate period (6-9 sec) ENE/E swell.
Coastal Weather Discussion
Winter takes a break in Florida following the cold dry weather in January and the first half of February. Strong high pressure that pushed off the mid-Atlantic coast last week, now centered near Bermuda will hold through the last weekend in February, establishing a veering SE/S/SW flow. The ESE fetch on the underbelly of the high will produce a small to moderate size swell just ahead of a weak/slow-moving cold front entering the SE US, forecast to ooze into north Florida late Tuesday. After a very warm weekend and start to the work week, increasing cloud cover and onshore flow will lead to cooler weather starting mid-week and continuing the remainder of the work week. Current forecast modeling indicates rideable surf through the work week.
The historic 2020 Hurricane season “officially” ended with the last tropical weather outlook issued December 1st
Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.
On a different note… we lost a good one this month: Ben Aipa RIP
NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links
General Tropical/Coastal Weather Forecasts and Discussion
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Sea surface temps in the GOMEX have also cooled considerably following seasonal peak in early September.
Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion