FLORIDA EAST COAST MARINE WEATHER
A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area Monday with a strong surge of northwesterly winds filling in Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread local waters late Monday evening. With an increasing likelihood for frequent gale force gusts offshore Monday night, a Gale Watch has been issued for the offshore waters. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance arrives Thursday night.
7-DAY SURF FORECAST
MONDAY: Showers and a few storms in the morning with wind starting out lightest from the west early, then clocking NW/NNW 9-18 mph in the afternoon with waves bottoming out at 0-1/2′ in miniscule east mix swell.
TUESDAY(19Mar): A chilly morning (mid 40’sF) with wind NNW/N 10-18 mph with waves 1-1.5′ (+ south am) in close period (6 sec) NNE wind swell. Wind should lay down some in the afternoon, but the day will still be unseasonably chilly with high only in the low 60’sF.
WEDNESDAY: Another uncharacteristically cold early spring morning (upper 40’sF) wind light offshore early, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7 sec) NE/E swell.
THURSDAY:
FRIDAY(22Mar):
SATURDAY:
SUNDAY:
7-10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK
While we will generally see small surf mid-month, a pair of brief pulses of N/NE swell will filter in on the 19th and again on the 23rd. Then, the last week in March modeling suggests strong high pressure will build off the New England coast, possibly combining with an open ocean low south of Bermuda, providing a decent/rotating NE/E fetch that will build a multi-day swell. Models suggest this scenario will play out again the first week in April. Surf temps north of the Cape that had recently climbed into the mid-60’s NE Florida and upper 60’s Daytona to NSb will probably punt a degree or two over the next week or so, not cresting the magical 70-degree mark until mid-April… stay tuned!
NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links
St. Augustine to Flagler Beach
NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast
NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)
Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida
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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:
St Augustine buoy 14-day forecast
This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:
Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.
Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate intense convection.
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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion