Dean’s Surf Forecast
The following surf forecast is based on a range of the average height of the highest one third of breaking waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves.
(Please note the following disclaimer): The 1-3 day portion of the surf forecast is updated/extended each morning following the latest local and short-term marine weather analysis, then tweaked a bit based on daily analysis of the freshest 6-hour forecast model run illustrating the evolution of wave-generating weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change (even radically up or down) with each model run, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…
Coastal Weather Discussion for NE Florida (edited by Dean)
Elevated Northeast Winds and Building seas are expected today as a coastal trough develops south of the local waters. Conditions will slowly improve late Tuesday night as the coastal trough weakens and lifts northward through the local waters. Consequently, wind will gradually lighten up through the remainder of the work week with lingering, rotating, gradually diminishing NE/E swell with an expanding period
High pressure will build east of the waters Wednesday through Friday, allowing wind to rotate E/SE/S. The next cold frontal passage is expected late Saturday.
7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast
THURSDAY: Wind much lighter in the morning, then SE 6-14 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (occ+ am) in moderate to longer period (8-9 sec) ENE/E swell.
FRIDAY: Wind light early in the morning, becoming south 7-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) east mix swell.
SATURDAY(25Mar): Wind SW 7-14 mph, shifting to west late with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ESE swell.
SUNDAY: Wind light NW early, then NW/N 6-14 mph with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) ESE swell.
MONDAY: Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming S/SE 5-13 mph with waves occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period ESE swell.
TUESDAY(28Mar):
WEDNESDAY:
Forecast Model Analysis & Extended Outlook (7-14 Days)
Modeling indicates that regardless of PA’s “Punx” Phil shadow forecast in early February for 6 more weeks of winter, the cold here in Florida ended for a while. The 3rd warmest February is in the record books and the first 2 weeks of March continued the crazy warm weather. However… modeling consensus was correct in forecasting the return of seasonally cool (to even downright cold!) temperatures periodically during the second half of the month with a series of strong late season cold fronts “Marching” in.
Medium range forecast models suggest after a week of mild to unseasonably warm weather, a cold front will push through Floridaaround the middle of next week and a low will spin up off Hatteras then intensify as it departs :

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Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast speculation.
Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.
NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links
St. Augustine to Flagler Beach
NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast
NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)
Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida
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Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.
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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion