Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast

The following surf forecast is based on a range of the average height of the highest one third of breaking waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves.

(Please note the following disclaimer): The 1-3 day portion of the surf forecast is updated/extended each morning following the latest local and short-term marine weather analysis, then tweaked a bit based on daily analysis of the freshest 6-hour forecast model run illustrating the evolution of wave-generating weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change (even radically up or down) with each model run, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt...

MONDAY: Wind light NW early in the morning, becoming N/NE 7-13 mph in the afternoon with waves 1.5-2′ (occ+) in long period (9-10 sec) ENE/E mix swell.

TUESDAY: Wind variable to light north in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1-2′ (occ+) in long period (10 sec) ENE/E mix swell.

WEDNESDAY(7Dec): Wind light/variable in the morning, becoming NE 5-12 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 2′ (occ/inc+) in lingering long period (10-11 sec) ENE/E ground swell.

THURSDAY: Wind calm early, becoming west 5-12 mph mid to late the morning, then turning onshore from the east later in the afternoon with waves 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in somewhat inconsistent long period (11sec) ENE ground swell.

FRIDAY: Wind lightest early, then increasing from the NW 9-17 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (+/-0.5′) in somewhat inconsistent long period (11-12 sec) ENE ground swell.

SATURDAY(10Dec): Wind starting out lightest from the NW early, becoming WNW/W 8-15 mph through the afternoon with waves up overnight to 2-2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ long period (9-12 sec) N/ENE swell.

SUNDAY: Wind light west early, becoming NW/N 6-13 mph late morning, then NE in the afternoon with waves 1.5-2.5′ (+/-0.5) in long period (13 sec) NE/ENE swell. Wind should ease some more later in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Wind NW/N 10-17 mph with waves 1.5-‘ (+/-0.5’) in long period (10-14 sec) NE/ENE swell.

TUESDAY(13Dec): Wind light NW/N in the morning, becoming NE 6-12 mph in the afternoon with waves 2-2.5′ (occ+) in long period (12-14 sec) ENE ground swell.

WEDNESDAY: Wind light/variable early in the morning, then E/SE 5-14 mph with waves 1.5-2.5′ (occ+ at times ) in lingering, more spaced out long period (14-occ 15 sec) ENE ground swell.

THURSDAY: Wind lightest early, then increasing from the SE/S 6-15 mph with waves 1.5-occ 2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in somewhat less consistent, spaced out long period (14-occ/inc 16 sec) residual ENE ground swell.

FRIDAY(16Dec): Wind lightest from the south early, then SW 7-16 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-2′ (occ/inc+) in very inconsistent, fading long period (occ/inc 15 sec) ENE ground swell.

Forecast Model Discusion
 
NWS Melbourne’s marine discussion backs up the surf forecast:
Persistent, long period easterly swell will continue to produce life-threatening rip currents at the beaches through the week and into next weekend. Rip currents have been responsible for 2 drownings and 1 near-drowning over the weekend, and conditions are not expected to improve during the week. Entering the surf is not advised, even if it looks inviting!
Tuesday-Thursday...Long period swell will continue across the local waters. High pressure sets up across the Florida peninsula Tuesday through Thursday. Seas expected to diminish to 3 to 5 ft with winds decreasing to 5-10 knots Tue out of the northeast. Wednesday, winds will slowly shift and become onshore at 10-15 knots, allowing seas to slowly build into Thursday. SCECs will likely be needed towards the end of the week again, with seas
reaching 6 feet across the Gulf Stream and offshore waters, and 4-5 feet across the nearshore waters.

Unseasonably mild weather, lighter wind and a decent multi-day, expanding period ENE/E swell will linger into the start of the work week. In the absence of cold fronts, multiple open-ocean lows will begin to dance this week well out to sea in the Atlantic:

Late in the work week, latest model runs suggest the closest of the lows will “bomb out” into a large gale centered in the distant central Atlantic approximately 1900 miles ENE of Jacksonville Florida:

As the sprawling/intense (sub-950mb) gale slowly departs NNE over the weekend, sending a huge swell toward Nazare Portugal, and another low is forecast to spin up Sunday (December 11) from progressive jet stream energy diving off the New England coast into the western Atlantic, sending a pulse of moderate period N/NE swell as the long period swell fades:

This low is forecast to quickly drop SE to near Bermuda while strengthening, sending a pulse of moderate to long period swell down the eastern seaboard through the first half of the work week:

Fall is a great time for tropical/hybrid storm and nor’easter surf in Florida (as long as our eroded beaches can handle it!)… Stay tuned!

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To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map
Follow CSU’s Dr. Phil K’s tweets for interesting comments on the evolving Atlantic hurricane season.

Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast speculation.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a

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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).
_day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming ).
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