North Florida Surf Forecast - Surf Station Surf Report

Dean’s Surf Forecast

The following surf forecast is based on a range of the average height of the highest one third of breaking waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves.

(Please note the following disclaimer): The 1-3 day portion of the surf forecast is updated/extended each morning following the latest local and short-term marine weather analysis, then tweaked a bit based on daily analysis of the freshest 6-hour forecast model run illustrating the evolution of wave-generating weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change (even radically up or down) with each model run, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…

Coastal Weather Discussion for NE Florida (edited by Dean)

Elevated Northeast Winds and Building seas are expected today as a coastal trough develops south of the local waters. Conditions will slowly improve late Tuesday night as the coastal trough weakens and lifts northward through the local waters. Consequently, wind will gradually lighten up through the remainder of the work week with lingering, rotating, gradually diminishing NE/E swell with an expanding period

High pressure will build east of the waters Wednesday through Friday, allowing wind to rotate E/SE/S. The next cold frontal passage is expected late Saturday.

7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast

THURSDAY: Wind much lighter in the morning, then SE 6-14 mph with waves 1.5-2′ (occ+ am) in moderate to longer period (8-9 sec) ENE/E swell.

FRIDAY: Wind light early in the morning, becoming south 7-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) east mix swell.

SATURDAY(25Mar): Wind SW 7-14 mph, shifting to west late with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ESE swell.

SUNDAY: Wind light NW early, then NW/N 6-14 mph with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) ESE swell.

MONDAY: Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming S/SE 5-13 mph with waves occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period ESE swell.

TUESDAY(28Mar):

WEDNESDAY:

Forecast Model Analysis & Extended Outlook (7-14 Days)

Modeling indicates that regardless of PA’s “Punx” Phil shadow forecast in early February for 6 more weeks of winter, the cold here in Florida ended for a while. The 3rd warmest February is in the record books and the first 2 weeks of March continued the crazy warm weather. However… modeling consensus was correct in forecasting the return of seasonally cool (to even downright cold!) temperatures periodically during the second half of the month with a series of strong late season cold fronts “Marching” in.

Medium range forecast models suggest after a week of mild to unseasonably warm weather, a cold front will push through Floridaaround the middle of next week and a low will spin up off Hatteras then intensify as it departs :

…Stay tuned for forecast model refinement and future prognostication!

NWPS significant wave height and direction 5-day forecast for Jacksonville to St. Augustine nearshore coastal waters

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To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map

Follow CSU’s Dr. Phil K’s tweets for interesting comments on the evolving Atlantic hurricane season.

Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast speculation.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)

NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a

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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:

Here is a good link to monitor open ocean storm systems in the distant Atlantic:

Atlantic Ocean Satellite

This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:

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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Atlantic Ocean SST’s off Florida’s east coast .

GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.

OTHER LINKS

Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=atla_ortho_height

Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:

http://www.stormsurf.com/4cast/mht/se.html

Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly

Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp

This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime

Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml

Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves

What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter. Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page: http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker

Last (but not least), here is a drone footage of tow-in session @ Nazare

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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).

_day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):