Dean’s 7-Day Surf Forecast
(Please note the following disclaimer): The 1-3 day part of the surf forecast is updated/extended each morning following the latest local and short-term marine weather analysis, then tweaked a bit based on buoy observations and analysis of the most recent 6-hour forecast model run illustrating the evolution of wave-generating weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change (even radically up or down) with each model run, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.
Here are several SW Atlantic buoy observation links (upstream in our ESE swell window) to monitor for upstream swell generated by distant tropical activity: NE St. Martin buoy #41044 NE Puerto Rico buoy #41043 Monitor the NE Bahamas buoy #41047 and East Bahamas buoy #41046 closer to Florida in our ESE swell window for ground swell height, period and direction that will soon work in to Florida’s east coast.
SATURDAY: Wind backing N/NW and easing to 7-15 mph with waves starting out at 2-3′ (occ+ am) in mixed period (8-11 sec) NNE/ENE mix swell.
SUNDAY: Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves down considerably, starting out at 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to longer period (9-occ 10 sec) NE/ENE swell, with the 2′ waves becoming much less consistent during the afternoon.
MONDAY(25Sept): Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ in moderate period (8 sec) ENE/E swell.
TUESDAY: Wind light early, then east 5-13 mph with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) east swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind lightest early, backing ENE/NE 8-16 mph with waves up a bit to 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ENE swell.
THURSDAY(28Sept): Wind NE 9-17 mph with waves up some to 1.5-2′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (7-12 sec) ENE swell.
FRIDAY: Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph with waves building to 1.5-2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (8-11 sec) ENE swell.
Tropical Atlantic and Coastal Waters Discussion
Following Hurricane Franklin’s decent swell early in the month, along came Hurricane Lee, a long-track Cabo Verde origin hurricane that slowly re-curved 750 or so miles east of Florida last week before accelerating to Canada. Lee’s long period ground swell proved some of the most sizeable/clean surf of the season.Then we had manic Margot spinning around aimlessly in the distant north/central Atlantic, and Hurricane Nigel departing to the cold waters of the North Atlantic.
Hurricane Nigel accelerating away to the N/NE. I don’t expect much more than a minor background long period swell contribution given the distance away and departing speed of the hurricane, and the fact that it will start arriving later in the week about the same time a mini-nor’easter hits leading into the weekend. Models indicate increasing potential for a PTC#16, a “home-grown” system to spin up offshore from Florida’s east coast, possibly becoming tropical storm Ophelia heading for the Outer Banks of NC over the weekend… Stay tuned.
Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate convection associated with tropical systems.
NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links
7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).
Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.
The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion