Dean’s 7-Day Surf Forecast

(Please note the following disclaimer): The 1-3 day part of the surf forecast is updated/extended each morning following the latest local and short-term marine weather analysis, then tweaked a bit based on buoy observations and analysis of the most recent 6-hour forecast model run illustrating the evolution of wave-generating weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast is subject to change (even radically up or down) with each model run, and consequently should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.

Here are several SW Atlantic buoy observation links (upstream in our ESE swell window) to monitor for upstream swell generated by distant tropical activity:  NE St. Martin buoy #41044   NE Puerto Rico buoy #41043  Monitor the NE Bahamas buoy #41047 and East Bahamas buoy #41046  closer to Florida in our ESE swell window for ground swell height, period and direction that will soon work in to Florida’s east coast.

SUNDAY: Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves down considerably, starting out at 1-occ/inc 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to longer period (10 sec) ENE swell,  becoming much less consistent during the afternoon.

MONDAY(25Sept): Wind light offshore in the morning, becoming onshore in the afternoon with waves 1-occ 1.5′ in moderate period (8 sec) ENE/E swell.

TUESDAY: Wind light early, then east 5-13 mph with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) east swell.

WEDNESDAY: Wind lightest early, backing ENE/NE 8-16 mph with waves up a bit to 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8 sec) E/ENE swell.

THURSDAY(28Sept): Wind NE 9-17 mph with waves up some to 1.5-2′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (7-12 sec) ENE swell.

FRIDAY: Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph with waves building to 1.5-2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in mixed period (8-11 sec) ENE swell.

Tropical Atlantic and Coastal Waters Discussion

Following Hurricane Franklin’s decent swell early in the month, along came Hurricane Lee, a long-track Cabo Verde origin hurricane that slowly re-curved 750 or so miles east of Florida last week before accelerating to Canada. Lee’s long period ground swell proved some of the most sizeable/clean surf of the season.Then we had manic Margot spinning around aimlessly in the distant north/central Atlantic, and Hurricane Nigel departing to the cold waters of the North Atlantic.

Hurricane Nigel accelerated away to the N/NE last week. TS Ophelia landfalled in North Carolina Saturday morning. Models indicate increasing potential for Tropical Storm Phillipe to strengthen in the distant central Atlantic this week… Stay tuned.

2023 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Outlook/Discussion
Record warm SST’s (2-3F above normal) in much of the tropical, sub-tropical and north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and GOMEX will provide ample fuel for tropical systems to strengthen as Saharan dust subsides and other environmental parameters (wind shear/available moisture) become increaingly favorable. Colorado State University’s outlook (issued earlier in April) suggests slightly below normal activity. AccuWeather is calling for a near normal season. NOAA issued the official forecast in late May calling for a wide range of activity from slightly below normal to slightly above normal.
Personally, I believe 2023 will have numbers similar to or slightly above last season’s near normal 14/8/2. I believe most of the activity will occur during the historical heart of hurricane season- from the 3rd or 4th week of August through first 3 weeks of September (centered around Sept 10th) instead of last year’s flurry of late season activity when Ian and Nicole assaulted both coasts of the Florida peninsula at the end of September and in early November. In June and July there may be one or two systems well out in the open Atlantic that generate decent surf and never impact land. Late in the season, toward the last of September and through October, the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea will be favored for one or two systems until the first good cold front in early fall scours out available moisture and increases shear.
Remember, it only takes one storm hitting your area to make it a bad hurricane season, and neither insurance, nor the Government, may bail you out the boat when it is sinking,.. Have a Personal/Family Plan before the Shit Hits the Fan!
To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map

Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate convection associated with tropical systems.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

NWPS significant wave height and direction 5-day forecast for Jacksonville to St. Augustine nearshore coastal waters
Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast discussion.

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:
This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:
map n/a
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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
Here is a good link to monitor open ocean storm systems in the distant Atlantic:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
Last (but not least), here is a drone footage of tow-in session @ Nazare
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).