Dean’s 7-Day Wind/Wave Forecast
(Please note the following disclaimer): This surf forecast is often tweaked a bit- sometimes even radically changing (up or down)- based on analysis of the latest forecast model runs that influence potential wave-generating weather systems. Consequently, the 4-7 day portion of the surf forecast should be taken with a grain (or two) of salt…
SUNDAY: Wind light W/SW in the morning, becoming S/SE 6-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (9 sec) E/SE swell.
MONDAY(10Aug): Wind light/variable early, becoming light south mid-morning, then SE 6-14 mph late morning through the afternoon with waves bottoming out around 1/2-1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (8-9 sec) E/SE swell.
TUESDAY: Wind light SSW/S in the morning, becoming S/SSE 7-15 mph by early afternoon with waves occ 1′ (+/-0.5′) in small-scale moderate period (8-9 sec) ESE swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind light SW/S in the morning, becoming SE 6-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ longer period (9-10 sec) ESE swell.
THURSDAY(13Aug): Wind light SW/S in the morning, becoming ESE 6-16 mph in the afternoon with waves up some during the day to 1-occ 1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to occ long period (9-11 sec) ESE swell.
Current Tropical/Coastal Weather Discussion
From the NHC tropical weather discussion (8/8/2020): A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
Looking well ahead, medium range forecast model runs that had previously suggested a strong hurricane entering the southern Gulf of Mexico around August 20-21 have totally backed off:
Run to run, earlier in the week the GFS consistently suggested this for several days with little variation in track and intensity of a strong topical system entering the southern Gulf of Mexico the 3rd week in August. As you can see with the above screen grab, the GFS flopped to nada now. I’ll monitor models to see if any flip back to game on in the Gulf. Stay tuned…
NWS Coastal Weather Forecast Links
General Tropical/Coastal Weather Discussion
NOAA’S Climate Prediction Center discussion of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates anomalies running 1.5-2.5 degrees C above normal, increasing the potential for tropical cyclogenesis as the hurricane season progresses toward the September 10th climatological peak of activity and other environmental paralmeters become more favorable.
The Climate Predictions Center (CPC) just issued the second update for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Atlantic basin hurricane season: NOAA 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.
Colorado State University (CSU) issued their 3rd update for the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season: CSU 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast.
Both NOAA and CSU have upped the ante, predicting a well above normal (possibly historical) active season with a total of up to 25 named storms, 12 becoming hurricanes with up to 6 reaching Major Hurricane status. WOW!!!!
Researchers in the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University (PSU) also forecast an active season with the possibility of 20 named storms: PSU Forecast.
St. Augustine buoy 7-day forecast for sea height forecast (primary swell):
CSU’s Dr. Klotzbach discusses the tropics and weather in his Twitter feed.
Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion