NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA SURF FORECAST (0700 Feb 3)
FRIDAY: The onshore flow will increase from the NE/ENE 11-21 mph through the morning as the gradient tightens when strong high pressure builds off the mid-Atlantic coast. Surf will respond by building in size from around 1′ early to 1.5-2.5′ in choppy, close to moderate period NE/ENE wind swell in the afternoon.
SATURDAY:  Wind E/ESE 6-16 mph with waves leveling off at 2-2.5′ in bumpy, moderate period east swell. 
SUNDAY: Wind light SW early, then south 5-12 mph with waves starting out at 1-2′ (occ 2.5′ am) in lingering ESE swell, diminishing some in the afternoon. 
MONDAY: A downward trend will kick in to start the work week with surf settling out in the 1-1.5′ (occ 2′ am) range with wind generally light/variable (mostly onshore).
TUESDAY: Wind N/NNE 5-14 mph with waves holding around 1-occ 1.5′ in mixed direction swell.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Models are suggesting that a back door front will push down into Florida around mid-week and stall out across the peninsula, with low pressure eventually developing along the frontal boundary either in the eastern Gulf or in the Atlantic ITVO the northern Bahamas. Stay tuned for new notes on what may be the most sizeable swell of 2012 to date later in the work week if the low intensifies and high pressure builds to its north. Check out the Fall/Winter Cyclogenesis Discussion below for more info…
Forecast Notes:
1) Weather Discussion: Ridging across the western US and troughiness off the New England coast pulled several shots of cold Arctic then Canadian/Polar air into Florida during the first half of January. The pattern flip-flopped from mid-January until now with the northern jet stream positioned well to the north and a stubborn high locked in off the southeastern US coast. The high, which has shunted approaching cold fronts well to the north of Florida and kept our surf rather small, will eventually decay.  I expect the change in this pattern next week with cyclogenesis  starting to occur in either the northern Gulf of Mexico or in the Atlantic north of the Bahamas when the southern jet stream becomes more active by mid-February. When this genesis transpires, the prospects for a series of decent swells will greatly improve during the second week of February as vigorous lows and their associated cold/warm fronts finally start tracking across the deep south, hopefully accompanied by desperately needed precipitation.
2) WT’s that had dropped to near 60F north Florida and low 60′s in central Florida just north of the Cape with the seasonably cold mid-winter weather in mid-January bounced back nicley with the extended run of well above normal temperatures. Look for WT’s that climbed into the mid 60′s north areas and upper 60′s to near 70F down near the Cape in late January to drop back down a few degrees into the low to mid 60′s with the brief return of seasonally cool weather. With late winter WT’s expected to generally range in the low to mid 60′s for another month or so, either of the Surf Station shops will have a state of the art piece of neoprene to replace for that old, worn out farmer john, spring suit, vest or windbreaker.
 
FALL/WINTER CYCLOGENESIS DISCUSSION (0700 Jan 14)
With winter in full swing, attention is focused on frequent frontal activity traversing the nation from west to east. Here is a great link to a loop of the surface pressure and wind associated with storm systems surrounding the CONUS (Continental US):
As part of the forecast, I’ll monitor the prospects for significant storm systems a week or so “upstream” that may eventually impact Florida’s weather and waves. The prospect for a series of decent-sized swells will improve starting next week through mid-February when the southern jet stream becomes much more active and storm systems track further south across the northern GOMEX and deep south. Here is NWS Tallahassee’s discussion regarding the pattern change:
 
LONG TERM…(Monday through next Friday) The work week begins with light northerly flow and dry weather with an area of high pressure
centered north of the area behind the remnants of a weak front. The models are still very divergent towards the end of the week with the 00Z GFS holding on to a much wetter scenario with an active subtropical moisture connection and a Gulf low. The Euro has more northern stream influence and a much more suppressed solution. The main difference is the handling of the upper level low that dives southward off the coast of California by mid week. The GFS is more progressive with this system and takes it into Mexico by Friday with a strong subtropical moisture feed connection ahead of it. Meanwhile, the Euro cuts off the low west of the Baja where it just sits and eventually weakens considerably. The GFS scenario would bring us a widespread 1-2 inch rainfall at the end of the week, and the Euro would bring us very little or nothing. The majority of the GFS ensemble members support the GFS, but the longer range GGEM and UKMET do not look very supportive. Confidence remains low on what will happen at the end of next week. The early medium range thoughts from the HPC prefer a blend of the Euro and the Euro ensembles with this scenario with the GFS and its ensembles straying away from the
multi-model consensus.
 
My previous discussion… Way upstream, I will monitor Pacific storm systems, thousands of miles and a continent width away from Florida. Why? Well, based on what I know of global weather patterns, strong lows ejecting northeastward into Alaska out of the Bering Sea often dislodge frigid Arctic air pooling over north Alaska and northwestern Canada, which then plummets southeastward into the US, often reaching Florida with strong NW/N winds ushering in bitter cold. This happened during the first week of 2012, and may occur again before the winter is over given the dominant La Nina pattern currently in place. Here is the still satellite image of the northwest Pacific (note the distinct coma-shaped cloud formations indicating winter storms generating significant winter swells for Hawaii):

 
LINKS
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys):  http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is a great link to coastal weather observation stations and offshore buoys throughout the Southeast:  http://secoora.org/about/asset_inventory_map
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic:  http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Finally, here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure:  http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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Here is the current 10 meter wind/pressure map for Florida:

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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming)…