DEAN’S SURF FORECAST (updated daily)
THURSDAY: Wind NW 5-11 mph in the morning with waves starting out early at 1′ (+/-0.5′), then wind becoming N/NE 5-15 mph in the afternoon with waves up a tad to 1-1.5′ in NE swell, with a more noticeable (but still relatively small) long period ground swell component filtering in during the afternoon.
FRIDAY: Wind NE/ENE freshening to 6-17 mph with waves up some more during the day to 1-1.5′ (occ 2 late)’ in NE swell.
SATURDAY: Wind NE 8-18 mph with waves continuing to build during the day to 1.5-2′ (occ + pm) in NE wind swell with an ENE ground swell component becoming more dominant toward evening.
SUNDAY: Wind backing NNE/N 6-16 mph with waves up some more during the day to 2-3′ (occ + pm) in combination NE wind/ENE ground swell.
MONDAY: Wind offshore from the NNW/NW 5-15 mph in the morning with waves leveling off at 2-occ 4′ in very consistent long period ENE/NE ground swell.
Forecast Notes:
1) Another late season ”cold” front will approach the state mid-week, with seasonally mild/dry to increasingly warmer mid-May weather:
Monitor the Western Atlantic wind/wavebelow): map for the forecasted ENE/NE fetch associated with the open Atlantic low promising to build a sizeable multiple-day wind/ground swell starting next weekend (please see note #2 below).
The multiple day swell will be compliments of the low and strong high pressure setting up over the mid-Atlantic, generating a good multiple day NE/ENE fetch over the weekend, maturing Monday and extending well into next week, with favorably offshore wind as the work week progresses.
2) Looking ahead, models suggest one or more lows will form in the open western Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas late in the work week, with one intensifying significantly (to 1002 mb) by the time it drifts to a position ESE of Hatteras by late in the weekend. I inserted tentative numbers reflecting the possibility of a significant and prolonged NE/ENE ground swell from this low in the extended portion of the forecast for now. As new forecast data comes in, please stay tuned for revisions. Here is what NWS Jacksonville had to say about the set up in their weather discussion:
FRIDAY…NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS…DURING THE WEEKEND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW IS AS POTENT AS THE GFS CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE CORRESPONDING NORTHEAST SWELL COULD BE SIGNIFICANT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WILL SCENARIO WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
3) WT’s that had dropped to near 60F north Florida and low 60′s in central Florida just north of the Cape with the seasonably cold mid-winter weather in mid-January bounced back nicely given the extended run of well above normal temperatures. With the non-winter experienced from mid-January through the first week of February, WT’s were well above normal in the mid 60′s north areas and near 70F down near the Cape into the start of the second week in February. WT’s were hammered down to 60-62F north areas and 64-66F south areas in mid-February with a brief outbreak of unseasonably cold weather associated with a southward surge of polar air. A gradual rebound into the mid-60′s north and upper 60′s south was noted the first several days of March before a brief cold air outbreak on the 4-6th knocked it back a degree or two. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures through the remainder of March into early April kept water temps comfortably in the mid 70′s. WT’s should continue to climb into and through the upper 70′s the second half of May, likely cresting the tropically supportive 80 degree mark by the end of the month given the expected continuation of unusually warm weather.
3) Me digestive track is hankerin’ that the ‘cane season of 2012 will have near normal activity overall, but be busy for Florida with several strong hybrid lows, tropical storms and possibly a hurricane striking the peninsula and/or the panhandle due to southwestern Atlantic, central Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico SST’s starting at very warm levels due to the non-winter the region just experienced. On the other hand, NOAA and CSU’s Gray and Klotzbach suggest that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity http://beta.local.yahoo.com/news-hurricane-experts-eye-2012-season.html with El Nino strengthening through the summer into the fall. The 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc12/66IHC-Linking-File.htm concluded in early March, highlighting advancements in short-term tropical cyclone forecasting. I will provide a me-gut (non-professional) assessment of the upcoming season in the coming days.
LATE WINTER/SPRING CYCLOGENESIS DISCUSSION (0700 Mar 21)
With La Nina transitioning to La Nada as winter wanes and spring sprangs, attention will re-focus on the western Atlantic east of Hatteras for signs of late season cyclogenesis. Here is a great link to a loop of the surface pressure and wind associated with storm systems surrounding the CONUS (continental US):
As part of the extended forecast, I’ll monitor the prospects for significant lows forecast by models to form in the Atlantic basin a week in advance, harbinging on systems that have a good potential to impact Florida’s weather and waves. The prospect for ground swells from strong/cut-off or hybrid pre-’cane season lows forming off the east coast should continue to improve from late March into April as pieces of energy break off the active southern jet stream, then spin up into cut-off lows that sit in our western Atlantic swell window for several days, generating decent ground swells with favorable local winds. STAY TUNED…
2012 HURRICANE PRE-SEASON DISCUSSION
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU’s December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting “…forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill.” They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.
On December 7, 2011, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 49% above the 1950-2010 average, with 14.1 (±4.2) tropical storms, 6.7 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 3.3 (±1.6) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 117 (±58). In its forecast, WSI noted that a cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not seen in a decade, combined with weakening La Niña, would result in a near average season with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted a near average probability of a hurricane landfall on the USA coastline, with a slightly elevated chance on the Gulf Coast and a slightly reduced chance along the East Coast.
LINKS
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is a great link to coastal weather observation stations and offshore buoys throughout the Southeast: http://secoora.org/about/asset_inventory_map
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Finally, here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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Here is the current 10 meter wind/pressure map for Florida:
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming)…
