DEAN’S SURF FORECAST
(Last edited by Dean on May 21, 2012 at 6:10 am)
MONDAY: Wind near calm to light WNW early, becoming N/NE/E 5-12 mph late morning into the afternoon (with the sea breeze) with waves holding at 1.5-2.5′ (occ/inc + am) in NE/E mix moderate to long period swell.
TUESDAY: Wind light offshore from the SW early, becoming SE 5-13 mph with waves starting out at 1-2′ (occ/inc + am) in slowly diminishing moderate to long period easterly swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind near calm to light south early, becoming S/SE 5-14 mph with waves stabilizing in size at 1-1.5′ in moderate period E/ESE swell.
THURSDAY: Wind SE/E 5-15 mph with waves 1-1.5′ in moderate period ESE swell.
FRIDAY: Wind E/ESE 5-14 mph with waves 1-occ 1.5′ in ESE swell.
Forecast Notes:
1) Local wind will become relatively light to start the work week as the ground swell from TS Alberto and a lengthy NE/E fetch slowly diminishes.
 
NOAA and CSU’s Gray and Klotzbach suggest that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity http://beta.local.yahoo.com/news-hurricane-experts-eye-2012-season.html with El Nino strengthening through the summer into the fall. The 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc12/66IHC-Linking-File.htm concluded in early March, highlighting advancements in short-term tropical cyclone forecasting. I will provide a me-gut (non-professional) assessment of the upcoming season in the coming days.
 
LATE WINTER/SPRING CYCLOGENESIS DISCUSSION (0700 Mar 21)
With La Nina transitioning to La Nada as winter wanes and spring sprangs, attention will re-focus on the western Atlantic east of Hatteras for signs of late season cyclogenesis. Here is a great link to a loop of the surface pressure and wind associated with storm systems surrounding the CONUS (continental US):
As part of the extended forecast, I’ll monitor the prospects for significant lows forecast by models to form in the Atlantic basin a week in advance, harbinging on systems that have a good potential to impact Florida’s weather and waves. The prospect for ground swells from strong/cut-off or hybrid pre-’cane season lows forming off the east coast should continue to improve from late March into April as pieces of energy break off the active southern jet stream, then spin up into cut-off lows that sit in our western Atlantic swell window for several days, generating decent ground swells with favorable local winds. STAY TUNED…
 
2012 HURRICANE PRE-SEASON DISCUSSION
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU’s December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting “…forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill.” They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.
 
On December 7, 2011, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 49% above the 1950-2010 average, with 14.1 (±4.2) tropical storms, 6.7 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 3.3 (±1.6) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 117 (±58). In its forecast, WSI noted that a cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not seen in a decade, combined with weakening La Niña, would result in a near average season with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted a near average probability of a hurricane landfall on the USA coastline, with a slightly elevated chance on the Gulf Coast and a slightly reduced chance along the East Coast.
 
LINKS
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys):  http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is a great link to coastal weather observation stations and offshore buoys throughout the Southeast:  http://secoora.org/about/asset_inventory_map
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic:  http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Finally, here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure:  http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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Here is the current 10 meter wind/pressure map for Florida:

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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming)…