
DEAN’S SURF FORECAST
(Last edited by Dean on May 21, 2012 at 6:10 am)
MONDAY: Wind near calm to light WNW early, becoming N/NE/E 5-12 mph late morning into the afternoon (with the sea breeze) with waves holding at 1.5-2.5′ (occ/inc + am) in NE/E mix moderate to long period swell.
TUESDAY: Wind light offshore from the SW early, becoming SE 5-13 mph with waves starting out at 1-2′ (occ/inc + am) in slowly diminishing moderate to long period easterly swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind near calm to light south early, becoming S/SE 5-14 mph with waves stabilizing in size at 1-1.5′ in moderate period E/ESE swell.
THURSDAY: Wind SE/E 5-15 mph with waves 1-1.5′ in moderate period ESE swell.
FRIDAY: Wind E/ESE 5-14 mph with waves 1-occ 1.5′ in ESE swell.
Forecast Notes:
1) Local wind will become relatively light to start the work week as the ground swell from TS Alberto and a lengthy NE/E fetch slowly diminishes.
NOAA and CSU’s Gray and Klotzbach suggest that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity http://beta.local.yahoo.com/news-hurricane-experts-eye-2012-season.html with El Nino strengthening through the summer into the fall. The 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc12/66IHC-Linking-File.htm concluded in early March, highlighting advancements in short-term tropical cyclone forecasting. I will provide a me-gut (non-professional) assessment of the upcoming season in the coming days.

LATE WINTER/SPRING CYCLOGENESIS DISCUSSION (0700 Mar 21)
With La Nina transitioning to La Nada as winter wanes and spring sprangs, attention will re-focus on the western Atlantic east of Hatteras for signs of late season cyclogenesis. Here is a great link to a loop of the surface pressure and wind associated with storm systems surrounding the CONUS (continental US):
As part of the extended forecast, I’ll monitor the prospects for significant lows forecast by models to form in the Atlantic basin a week in advance, harbinging on systems that have a good potential to impact Florida’s weather and waves. The prospect for ground swells from strong/cut-off or hybrid pre-’cane season lows forming off the east coast should continue to improve from late March into April as pieces of energy break off the active southern jet stream, then spin up into cut-off lows that sit in our western Atlantic swell window for several days, generating decent ground swells with favorable local winds. STAY TUNED…
2012 HURRICANE PRE-SEASON DISCUSSION
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU’s December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting “…forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill.” They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.
On December 7, 2011, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 49% above the 1950-2010 average, with 14.1 (±4.2) tropical storms, 6.7 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 3.3 (±1.6) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 117 (±58). In its forecast, WSI noted that a cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not seen in a decade, combined with weakening La Niña, would result in a near average season with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted a near average probability of a hurricane landfall on the USA coastline, with a slightly elevated chance on the Gulf Coast and a slightly reduced chance along the East Coast.
LINKS
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is a great link to coastal weather observation stations and offshore buoys throughout the Southeast: http://secoora.org/about/asset_inventory_map
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Finally, here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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Here is the current 10 meter wind/pressure map for Florida:

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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming)…












































































144 comments
camp1 says:
Mar 27, 2012
Hey DEAN…fforecast looks pretty sweet..but what do you think bout south florida (palm beach) wednesday afternoon and thursday…warm water and bigger swelll is definitly callin my name…what about you?
Dean says:
Mar 28, 2012
Camp,
Based on the dominant NE direction of this swell, I expect north central Fla (St. Auggie down to the Cape) to have the best size Wednesday, with the swell peaking during the day. S Fla should have a somewhat smaller version, along with stronger onshore winds messing up the quality. Thursday will still have some fun waves central and north Fla with offshore wind in the morning, but the swell is forecast to be diminishing in size and consistency. Is it worth the trip for a few degrees of warmer water when we’re already in the low 70′s and gas is $4/gal in S. Fla?… nah.
-Dean
camp1 says:
Feb 9, 2012
YOO Dean, Camp here again. What are your thoughts on down south this weekend. I know itll def be bigger, but the winds are my main concern. DO you think its worth the trip, and if so how far down you think? Thankx brutha
Dean says:
Feb 11, 2012
hey camp1,
didn’t see your question until just now. you’re spot-on about the wind being a concern. it will be sizeable down south sat afternoon through sunday, and the rotation to a more northerly component should hold off until sunday morning. hope you figured this out and are headed down -95 sat morning. catch a few for me…
-dean
camp1 says:
Mar 27, 2012
Hey DEAN…forecast looks pretty sweet..but what do you think bout south florida (palm beach) wednesday afternoon and thursday…warm water and bigger swelll is definitly callin my name…what about you?
Jdubs says:
Jan 23, 2012
Dean. Was wondering what you thought of PR (Rincon) next weekend with this cold front dropping down? The wave models don’t seem to be indicating anything significant at the moment. Thanks
Dean says:
Jan 23, 2012
JDUBS-
This front ain’t gonna do it for PR next weekend. If you can go during the work week, there should be a sizeable NE/ENE high pressure swell building by the middle of next week.
-Dean
Camp says:
Jan 10, 2012
Daniel, if the swell is hitting panama city, head to st.andrews state park. Incoming tide is sick, wind blockage, and easy and friendly crowd and the wave is all time. Triangleing barrels when I caught it in December. NO JOKE!!! HIGH TIDE DOES MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE even though its like a foot change. GOOD LUCK BRO
Daniel says:
Jan 9, 2012
Dean, Awesome job. First time I’ve ever posted but I’ve been following since the beginning. Got a question, I want to go to the gulf this week because it looks like they’re going to get a little something but it looks iffy on west coast and maybe more solid in the panhandle. What do you think? I really don’t feel like driving to the panhandle do you think the St. Petersburg area might be worth the drive? I’ve been plenty of times but I would like your opinion because I think your the best on the web.
Appreciate it,
Daniel.
Dean says:
Jan 11, 2012
Just saw you’re e-mail Daniel (been busy burning). Its probably too late for me to offer any advice on trip planning, but Gulfster.com issued this forecast note this morning:
Wednesday January 11th: Rise up surfers I can smell it. Swell this morning not quite here yet, but the buoy’s are pinging and it’s not that far away. Surf looking about knee high and really weak this morning. Small batches of rain have moved through the area with more rain likely for the Northern counties as we go through the morning. Today look for building surf from the WSW and scattered showers. Winds will be cranking from the West for most of today and turning lighter by tomorrow morning. Thursday morning we should have solid surf and light winds up until noon. Late Thursday we get a reinforcing shot of NW wind that will provide us with some choppy leftovers for Friday. Clear your afternoon today and call in sick tomorrow… we’re going surfing! Email your pics to GulfsterReport@gmail.com to have them posted. Gulf Temp 63°
Camp says:
Jan 8, 2012
Dean, Camp here again. Just wanted to let you know my buddy and I scored the gulf back in Decemeber. Thanx for being the deciding factor in our decision. I have a question you may or may not know, but maybe someone will. My friends and I are planning a Peru trip in sometime between march and may and we searching nonstop for ways to stay, get around, guides etc. If you or anyone has any knowledge on this we would greatly apprectiate it. Thankx for all you do. –Camp
Dean says:
Jan 10, 2012
Glad you got some Gulf gojo. Me no know Peru. Anyone that has perused Peru in the past please get ahold of Camp.
-Dean.
anthony ackrill says:
Jan 3, 2012
hello dean,
why do we get such a puny swell here in north florida during a cold front when further south it gets so much larger? the weather system that generates
the swell passes through our ocean the same as it does down south. what’s the difference?
thank you, anthony
Dean says:
Jan 3, 2012
The answer is in your question, grasshopper. Same weather system, same ocean… longer NNW/N fetch with greater duration due to the position of the cold high pressure area.
You are welcome, Anthony.
BJ says:
Jan 1, 2012
HELLO DEAN BASED ON YOUR CALLS FROM LAST YEAR I SCORED REALLY GOOD WAVES FROM FT PIERCE SOUTH WITH THE Bitterly cold NW/NNW SWELLS. I HAVE LIVED AND SURFED IN FLORIDA MY WHOLE LIFE AND HAD NO IDEA HOW GOOD SOUTH FLORIDA REALLY IS WHEN THESE SWELLS TAKE PLACE THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LITTLE DRIVIN SOUTH AND YOU MAY FEEL LIKE YOU ARE SURFING CENTRAL AMERICA NOT SOUTH FLORIDA. NOTE, TO ANY HEADING THAT WAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THE BEST SPOTS HAVE LOCAL CREWS THAT DO NOT OPEN WELL TO A VAN FULL OF PEOPLE THEY HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE SO TRAVEL LIGHT, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK ON THE FORECAST.
Dean says:
Jan 1, 2012
The long lefts and warm water are worth the drive when the strong cold fronts crank through. Good advice to travel “light” when headed south!
Camp says:
Dec 19, 2011
DEAN!!! Gulf coast trip for wednesday??? I need your guidance on this one. ST. andrews state park maybe
Dean says:
Dec 20, 2011
hEY cAMP-
Looks like the panhandle will have considerably more surf than the east coast tomorrow. The SE/S swell will build to waist/chest high through today as the “suck up” fetch ahead of the approaching cold front kicks in. Here is what NWS Tallahassee said in their morning marine discussion:
“Advisory conditions are expected today and tonight ahead of a cold
front, mainly west of the Ochlockonee river. Prolonged southerly
flow is expected to produce elevated surf heights of 3 to 5 feet
along the panhandle beaches today.”
I expect the swell to drop rather quickly (as is usually the case for Gulf swells as soon as the source cuts off) Wednesday afternoon/evening on as the front pushes through, so get it early. Enjoy!
Guille says:
Dec 1, 2011
Dean, I am undecided if I should drive this weekend from Atlanta for some surf. I am concern about the winds. How surf-able the wave are going to be with these winds on saturday and sunday?
Dean says:
Dec 2, 2011
The onshore flow will be light enough Sunday morning to allow the wind chop to lay down some as the east swell spreads out in period. This early December, multiple-day easterly swell (with tolerable WT’s and mild weather) won’t have classic offshores or major size, but you can’t knock the opportunity to get wet with several days of rideable/springsuitable surf centered on a weekend in early winter. Go for it!
Bfarr says:
Dec 9, 2011
Also thinking about coming down from ATL this weekend….see y’all out there!
jolene says:
Nov 30, 2011
Saw a large shark at A street about to days ago.
Dean says:
Dec 2, 2011
“Toe” days ago, Jolene? It was sushi city in the roe mullet run when I surfed PL last Monday.
km says:
Dec 7, 2011
Shark should eat you if you can’t spell “two.”
Dean says:
Dec 8, 2011
A nibble on the little toe would be punishment enough for Jolene’s minor blunder.(two and to sound identical).
Worth says:
Nov 21, 2011
about*
Dean says:
Nov 22, 2011
I just noticed the lost “pre-T day” and updated the forecast. Don’t know how that happened. Smallest surf of the week, but cleanest and still highly rideable with a long board or fish. Last chance to get out before the next blow arriving Turkey Day.
Worth says:
Nov 21, 2011
What ablaut Wednesday??
MillieMoo says:
Oct 7, 2011
So, not likely to have the ocean swim Sunday for the Marineland tri??
Dean says:
Oct 7, 2011
Ocean will be like a washing machine set on HD. Maybe they could move it inside the inlet, say, swimm to Rattlesnake and back. That might be Shark City (yum-yum yellow speedos NOT recommended).
nicole says:
Oct 6, 2011
when is it gonna start to get cleaner and still have size?
Dean says:
Oct 7, 2011
Depends on when the low to ours south gets organized and moves our way. We may have a windshift from SE/S/SW late Monday into Tuesday if the low tracks up the west side of the state as some models suggest, stay tuned…
bob says:
Oct 5, 2011
Looks like great time to be kitesurfung for the next few days! Nothing beats a great surf session but when its blown out… up goes the kite. Thanks Dean for your accurate wind info, I have scored some sessions when you called for a seabreeze and models didn’t show crap!
Johnny Boy says:
Oct 4, 2011
THURSDAY: Wind east 10-20 mph with surf 2-occ 3′ in choppy easterly wind swell.
FRIDAY: Wind E/ESE 10-20 mph with surf temporarily leveling off at 2.5-occ 3.5′ in roughed up easterly swell.
Zone Forecast: Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM (AMZ472)
Friday…Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 9 to 12 feet building to 10 to 15 feet in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night And Saturday…East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 11 to 16 feet. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
joffthehook says:
Oct 5, 2011
are you trying to override the infamous dean forecast with computer generated forecasting? Nice try, my bet is still on Deano…
Dean says:
Oct 6, 2011
Hey Johnny Boy (Gomes?)-
Due to other work committments, there will be occassional gaps in opportunity to look at the latest information, therefore my forecast sometimes falls behind the official call when conditions are dynamically changing with each forecast cycle. Please feel free to continue to cut and paste timely updates of the official marine forecast!
-Dean
Sunny Stevens says:
Sep 29, 2011
Thanks for the dedication to the forecast. It extremely accurate & just like everything else The Surf Station does….you are first class!
Dean says:
Sep 30, 2011
Thanks SS! As grandma used to say when she caught a fish, even a blind squirrel occassionally gets a nut!
Josh says:
Sep 16, 2011
Dean,
Thanks for the reports! I’ve been checking your info for years and have had many good timed sessions due to your updates. I’m just curious, what was the deal with yesterdays lack of size? Maria seemed to be in the best location, had the strength, and our pulse from her was slowly building each day as she was getting closer. I like you, thought Thursday was going to be the day and was baffled with the buoy numbers. From Wed. night to Thurs. morning, they dropped a foot where I would have sworn they would have picked up a foot or more. And even though there was some fun little lines coming through, it was nothing like I would have expected with the storm in that location. Whats your thoughts?
Thanks again for the forecast!
Dean says:
Sep 16, 2011
Josh,
As Maria neared then past our latitude Wednesday night/Thursday, her windfield was elongated with the strongest/longest fetch on the topside (north side) of the tropical storm. Irene and Katia’s more concentric and intense windfield allowed good size from these hurricane’s swell train to continue to propagate in our direction well after they passed north of our latitude (though Irene’s fetch was cut-off when she landfalled on the Outer Banks). Hope the above explanation somewhat satisfies your curiosity!
Ern says:
Sep 28, 2011
Dean,I like the larger pictures but on a lap top or pad I have to scroll around to either get the arrow for the next pic or look at the entire picture in sections. As the case may be I could be in a big hurry to get out the door!!If you have an option for a slightly smaller size I think it would slightly quicker and easier.
Thank you for asking for input, I read and view your reports daily
alexa says:
Sep 13, 2011
youre focast is the sh*t! I check it every morningand 95% of the time your right thanksalot for being so good at what you do, dude
Dean says:
Sep 13, 2011
righteous alexa!
daniel t says:
Sep 11, 2011
Damn Dean, Thanks for taking the time with the forecast!! You really help everyone out with getting the most out of there seasons, and living in this state that is constant task that takes time.You are by far the most consistent forecaster ive read. I have watched surfline conform to your weekly layout several times before. Enough though you have a regular job,you still maintain a professional approach to the forecast. I personal have had some of the best seasons from watching your layout. Not mention the paragraph you have added before the forecast this mornin.You are one hell of a Patriot, and a damn good American. Thanks for all of the flawless info and taking the time you do.Cheers to the best forecaster in Florida!!
Dean says:
Sep 13, 2011
daniel t,
thank you for the kind words. i’m a very thankful for everyday on the topside sharing the O2 and occasionally slicing the NaCl H2O.
Brad says:
Sep 11, 2011
I am not from Gvill. I am local. Jim, I will destroy you.
Brad says:
Sep 11, 2011
Sorry man just blowing off some steam, took the wrong day off of work. I was only living to get radical.
Jim says:
Sep 10, 2011
Brad, stay in g-ville and make the call for yourself next time.
Dean says:
Sep 10, 2011
Play nice, Jim. Brad’s correct that my Kat call (peak days and local winds) wasn’t that accurate, especially considering that I nailed Irene the week before.
brett says:
Sep 9, 2011
Don’t worry about the call on the swell Dean, Brad just had a bad day yesterday. His board got washed into the rocks at the pier yesterday evening. That’s good news for Tory though, Brad needs a new board.
Brad says:
Sep 8, 2011
Your call was horrible for this swell.
Dean says:
Sep 9, 2011
Thanks for the input Brad. I missed the timing of the peak size by a day. Katia’s ESE swell came in strong at first early in the week from her first pulse when she passed well north of the islands. The swell backed off a bit Wednesday as the focus of her swell train moved more north, then the swell surged back from the east on Thursday because she slowed due east of us the previous day, allowing the wave-generating fetch on her north side to re-focus another swell pulse in our direction. I had a discussion with a long-time local surfer/shaper early in the work week about the peak of Katia’s swell, and we agreed about the above scenario. I was so busy at my real job that I did not take the time to put these thoughts into the forecast- it would’ve been much more accurate. Also, I haven’t been able to surf or see the ocean at all this entire swell, and that always helps me get the forecast tuned in better. Enough on the excuses, I’ll try to do better on Maria’s swell. Brad, I hope you checked in with Tory’s daily updates and got some of Katia.
-Dean
Camp says:
Sep 2, 2011
Thanks for all the info Dean and Tommy. Im going to see what tommorow brings and hope for the best…COME ON KATIA!!!! DEan…Keep on doin it bro
Dean says:
Sep 2, 2011
I think they’r overcalling it a bit for 15′ seas on Tuesday, but it should be overhead Sunday afternoon through Monday based on the strong windfield and length southerly fetch on Lee’s east side.
Sunday/Monday coastal forecast for nearshore waters of PCB…ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXPAND SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST DETAILS OF THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORMS LEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…HOWEVER IT APPEARS LIKELY THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. South wind around 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots possible. Seas 10 to 13 feet. Protected waters rough. Showers and thunderstorms.
Camp says:
Sep 2, 2011
Dean, Im wondering about a gulf trip this weekend however the winds are my main concern. Any advice?
Tommy says:
Sep 2, 2011
If I may; it’s worth getting wet @ the jetty in St Andrews state park(PCB) to warm up for the Katia swell, but stay put…your swell coming over there may rival David in ’79, or have the long-term duration of Marilyn in the mid 90′s…
Dean says:
Sep 2, 2011
Camp,
My FSU son asked me the same thing last night. I was thinking Sunday will be the day to sprint over there. St. A jetty or Pickens Pt P-cola probably best bets to help with the expected strong onshore wind. Tonight over a cold one I’ll take a look at the latest forecast data and give you a better answer. Tommy’s right, you’re gonna wanna stay put next week for Katia’s swell. If latest 7-day forecast for Katia is correct, Katia will struggle to intensify over the weekend with about 48 hours of dry air and SW shear to deal with, then she will strengthen to Cat 3 while tracking west around the middle of next week, smack in our east swell window. I’ll put some numbers on the size and local winds when I see some consensus in the latest data.
Ernest Chappelle says:
Sep 3, 2011
Dean,
last time I was in P’cola you couldn’t get to Pickens Pt.Road had been washed out. That place can get unbeleivable Ala Moana like lefts
Jeff E says:
Aug 30, 2011
Dean, I’m an old time Florida local (joined the Navy and have been in San Diego since 1989) However, every now and then I try to time a visit with family and friends in conjunction with a hurricane swell to maximize my time. Unfortunately, unable to make Irene but Katia may be doable. Forecast runs look pretty good right now for a decent shot of good surf provided high pressure prevents Katia from turning to the NW (which would probably not be good at ALL for Florida). What do you think? Still a long way out but I will need to get a ticket soon. Even out here in California I still tune into your forecasts. Wish you were around when I was growing up…Thanks.
Dean says:
Aug 30, 2011
Jeff-
Around Tuesday of next week, Katia is forecast to find a weakness between the pair of highs to her north (that would otherwise block her recurvature) along 62-67W longitude around 900 miles to the east of Florida. She is forecast to be a Catagory 2 huricane at the time of her slow recurvature. If models are correct, I’d expect (at a minimum) a solid, multiple-day long-period easterly ground swell starting to filter in Monday afternoon, building into Wednesday and peaking in size at 3-5′ around the middle of the work week (Sept 7th), with plenty of residual swell only slowly decaying in size/consistency over the remainder of the work week given the relatively slow (12-14 mph) forward motion that is forecast when Katia tracks to the NW/N slightly less than 1000 miles due east of Florida. A possible fly in the ointment regarding the quality of Katia’s swell may come from a nearly stationary tropical storm is forecast to be spinning in the eastern Gulf of Mexico several hundred miles west of Tampa. This set up could put the east coast of Florida in a moderate to possibly strong SSW/S/SSE flow, so surface conditions would be somewhat unfavorable for clean hurricane ground swell if the system develops and impacts our local wind flow. Lots can change over the next 7 days, but next week does look like a good week for a multiple-day run of ground swell with the wild card being local wind conditions. Look for an extension of my forecast (based on fresh date) later this week that will attempt to nail down the wind/waves I expect from Katia.
-Dean
Matt D says:
Aug 29, 2011
Dean, I can’t thank you enough for the effort you put into all of the forecast. As a recent meteorology undergrad I understand all the work you have to put in as well as the crap you probably receive from dome folk. I can only hope for the wealth of knowledge you have attainted over the years, and I can say with out a shadow of a doubt all of us in north florida are truly bless to have you forecasting for us.
Dean says:
Aug 30, 2011
Bless you, grasshopper. May the next hurricane ground swell provide you with many spitting, makeable tubes.
Russell says:
Aug 29, 2011
Dean, do you know what the Lunitidal Interval is for Mayport? I need to program my new watch with that information, so it will properly measure the tides. I used a formula I found on a NOAA site and came up with 7.92 hours, but I’m not sure about it. I figured if anyone would know the answer it would be you…
By the way, your forecasts are outstanding! Keep up the good work.
Thanks
Dean says:
Aug 30, 2011
Not a clue about the lunatical tide thing. Thanks for the complement!
kevin says:
Aug 29, 2011
did you live in st.augustine and drive a green jeep in the eighties?
Dean says:
Aug 30, 2011
Yep, that was me in the early 80′s. Did you know the Diamond brothers (Mathew and David)?
kevin says:
Aug 30, 2011
no, I had an old fj 40, used to run across you at middles, blowhole and vilano, spent my formative youth at vilano beach, just wanted to say hello, I check your forecast frequently, especially this time of year, as you are my go to source for surf info, really appreciate all the time and effort you put into it, thanks to you we are able plan trips on the east coast and my son still hasn’t figured out how I know when and where there will be waves, p.s. caught Playalinda really good weekend before last, thank you. my son is completely baffled
CJ says:
Aug 24, 2011
any chance of swell on sun now that the storm will be further off coast and moving north fairly rapidly?
Dean says:
Aug 25, 2011
There will be some lingering/inconsistent 2′ set waves still around Sunday morning, but it will drop like a rock compared to Saturday because Irene’s circulation will clip the Outer banks Saturday afternoon/evening, thus cutting off the wave-generating fetch.
nicole says:
Aug 23, 2011
oh alright, so are they gonna have a good form at least?
Dean says:
Aug 23, 2011
Close passage hurricane swells are what I call drive-by “book end” swells. We will see a small to moderate fledling SE/ESE ground swell Wednesday afternoon with decent form (but increasingly choppy) as the wind starts to ramp up toward evening. All day Thursday and Friday morning will be somewhat out of control. Friday afternoon will see the wind going more side to offshore (south areas) with plenty of size. Saturday will be the day when it all comes together with plenty of residual groundswell groomed by hard offshore wind that will gradually ease in the afternoon. It’s all laid out in the 5-Day Forecast above.
nicole says:
Aug 23, 2011
Is this swell pretty for sure gonna be close to 10 ft?
Dean says:
Aug 23, 2011
The potential for 10′ set waves will be good if the hurricane does not accelerate too rapidly as it passes by to the east. Regardless of the size, there will be a significant amount of drift for most during this swell due to the amount of water that will be pushed around by Irene
Patrick Altes says:
Aug 22, 2011
Dean, thanks.
Dean says:
Aug 22, 2011
You’re welcome, Patrick.
Dean says:
Aug 17, 2011
And another interesting ‘cane season tid-bit: The 2011 season is the first time on record that we have had 7 consecutive named tropical storms without a single one of them becoming a hurricane!!
Dean says:
Aug 22, 2011
Make that 8 with Harvey. Irene just ended the hurricane-less streak.
Rich says:
Aug 17, 2011
Dean,
I use to pay attention to the guy down in Cocoa Beach “Walt”, now your the guy. Looks like you are using the right tools and data to make an educated guess. I surf mostly down in the Port Orange – Ponce Inlet area and your close enough to have similar conditions. Thanks for the time you put into this.
Old Guy Rich
Dean says:
Aug 19, 2011
Rich-
There is so much satellite and oceanographic data available to peruse. My biggest problem is finding enough time to do so to keep my educated guess on track. My surfing territory is the next stretch of beach south of you- from Ponce down to the Cape. When I worked in DB I used to hit the pier and points south to Wilbur BTS (caught some great waves at BB’s back in the mid 90′s).
-Dean
Dean says:
Aug 17, 2011
Wow! Here is an interesting statistic regarding landfalling US/Fla hurricanes. It has been 1068 days since a hurricane struck the US (Ike in September 2008) and 2123 days since Florida was hit (Wilma October 2005). Long-term records and the law of averages suggest that we are way, way overdue.
Brad M says:
Aug 17, 2011
Dean,
Thanks for your detailed reports & keep up the good work.
I’m from S FL, but I’m always checking your info first. I’ll Prol be up soon, let’s go waves!
Dean says:
Aug 17, 2011
Thanks Brad. Late August and September can see some of the best swells of the year. Keep the tank full and the vacation time ready for what could turn out to be a stellar hrricane season.
CJ says:
Aug 24, 2011
yea ill be makin the trip up there this weekend for sure!
Rusty Strudel says:
Aug 11, 2011
I love your forcasts. Straight up predictions. Willing to look at any hope and access it without apparent fear. In my experience you’ve nailed it most of the time. Thanks
Dean says:
Aug 17, 2011
Maybe no fear, but I do liberally use disclaimers!
DoBo says:
Aug 4, 2011
Dean,
I am curious to know what factors are causing these waves from TS Emily to be classified as wedgy (And by “wedgy” you mean a wave that goes from a flat, rolling swell to a jacked-up, fast breaking wave more quickly than a usual wave does, right?).
Because I am a more inexperienced surfer, these days tend to be more difficult for me to catch waves on, so I would like to know how to predict them in the future.
Thanks
Dean says:
Aug 4, 2011
I used “wedgy” here loosely to mean disorganized with cross-direction swells. Any swell from Emily will not be classic offshore storm swell lines since the system is forecast to pass by so close to our coast.
Emily :) says:
Aug 3, 2011
Do you know something they don’t know?
Swell Info says
Thursday
Conditions: Fairly clean in the morning with SW winds 5-10kt. Semi glassy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting SSE less than 5 kt.
Friday
Conditions: Clean in the morning with WSW winds 5-10kt. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting to the SE.
Saturday
Conditions: Clean in the morning with WSW winds less than 5kt. Semi glassy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting to the SE.
Sunday
Conditions: Fairly clean in the morning with SW winds 5-10kt. Clean conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting to the W.
Swell Info Surf Reports Spacer
Dean says:
Aug 3, 2011
It’s pretty much a crap shoot regarding wind and waves ATM. Emily has not strengthened nor has she moved much the past 12 hours, and this has delayed the start of the NW turn that most models (and the official NHC forecast) have been favoring. My wind/wave forecast for the weekend takes this into account and is based on a 50 mph tropical storm tracking by 50 miles to the east of Florida Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Take my forecast with a grain of salt, and look for me to make frequent updates as new hurricane hunter data streams in.
-Dean
Emily :) says:
Aug 3, 2011
Dean curious about your forecast. Normally you are right on but there’s a major difference from what you are calling for verses the marine forecast.
NWS Jacksonville, FL
Zone Forecast: Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM (AMZ454)
Thursday Night…South winds 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Friday…Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Winds becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night…South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday…West winds 10 to 15 knots. Winds increasing to north 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night…North winds 15 knots and gusty. Winds becoming west after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday…Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Dean says:
Aug 1, 2011
Curly,
Long enough for you to walk the dog, grab a bite, wax your board, and head to the beach (unless you live in G’ville).
Curly says:
Jul 31, 2011
Dean, I have a question. How long does it take for the wave/swell frequency/height to travel from the St. Augustine Buoy 41012 to reach St. Augustine Beach?
Dustin says:
Jul 19, 2011
It’s TS Bret, not Brett
Dean says:
Jul 20, 2011
Thanks- I welcome spelling assistance!
GOOSE says:
Jul 18, 2011
thanks for doing what you do brotha
Dean says:
Jul 20, 2011
Thanks for utilizing the SS web site!
ccru says:
Jul 7, 2011
Great call on this morning’s swell! Most of the other forecasts had it only slightly better than yesterday, but it was quite a bit better like you said.
Dean says:
Jul 11, 2011
As my grandmother used to say, even a blind squirrel occassionally finds an acorn!
surflad says:
Jun 22, 2011
In 1963 a surf forecast was a very rare thing indeed! We had to learn to glean from the TV nightly news, local fishermen, or pilots. Or the radio, yeh, it was called a radio. Throughout the 70′s we used a “weather cube” which ran on batteries but only transmitted the NOAA marine forecast, but you had to listen long enough to hear the forecaster give info about your section coastline. It was a good learning tool. Into the late 80′s and early 90s computer technology was improving fast so information was shared more quickly and updated more often throughout the day. But there was no internet. You might not even imagine such a frightening world without internet! Then in the mid 90s dial-up internet came on strong and surfers were much better prepared when the swell arrived. But satellite received and transmitted info? Whoa! We never dreamed of such a thing back in the days of gulf wax and redwood stringers! Up to the minute digital surf cams on my hand held pocket sized wireless phone? 24hours a day? Anywhere on planet earth? Truly amazing! I never miss the best swell-tide-wind combo. Thanks Tory, thanks Dean, for doing your part to make this incredible surfing lifestyle so easy.
Dean says:
Jun 24, 2011
your summary brings back fond memories of warm, salty summer nights (in the 1970′s) hanging on the beach with my girl friend watching for any sign (larger sets, increasing onshore winds, higher tides) that a swell might be on the way. free of data mining electronic gadgetry, deeply in tune with the ocean’s ebb and flow cycles.
chris says:
Jun 16, 2011
when did northeast winds start howling? could that wind send a swell to south florida???
Jeff V says:
Jun 13, 2011
Dean, stay safe in the fire. We all need this forecast. So drink plenty of water and don’t do anything silly either (like fall asleep at the wheel again). And I also like your long weather commentary and your outlooks on the tropics, winter, and seasons…. Keep it up!!!!
Dean says:
Jun 15, 2011
thanks jeff v. the fire kicked our butt yesterday afternoon. we were able to keep it away from structures and finally beat it back into the swamp after sunset. today will be another rough day with low humidity, high temperatures, and extremely dry fuels.
JAKE says:
Jun 28, 2011
Hey Dean,
Thanks for the always detailed swell forecast. I live in NSB and work as a fire/medic here. Brush season has been dry and nasty down here as well. We’re finally getting relief from the rain besides a few flare ups from lightning strikes. We sent a few guys to the Espanola fire but mostly we had to stay local due to a lot of activity in our area. Hope it’s all getting contained up your way. I have a Costa trip coming up with my fiance’ which I was going to start at Tortuga Del Mar in Hermosa Beach. Any one have suggestions for cool places to stay/visit?
uriah says:
Jun 5, 2011
Mr Dean.
What is your take on the “refracto” swells in SE Florida. As far as fact vs fiction goes….. reflection off off the Bahamas ( Bahamas bounce) is fiction……. refraction off of the bathymetry if fact…. but how does the Florida current (gulf stream) play a role?….. Can we associate these events with “elephants on the horizon” in north Florida…… and is it possible that these swells can arise from only NW winds or would there need to be some north fetch up by Georgia…… thanks in advance,
kind regards
Uriah
Dean says:
Jun 6, 2011
uriah-
you are all over it- the answers to most of your questions are answered by your questions. i’m no oceanographer, but i’d speculate afa the gulf stream’s role, the northward flowing current tends to stack up and steepen opposing swells from a NW/N/NE direction along Florida’s coastal shelf, making for steeper and more powerfull breaking waves in S Florida. heep rules!
-dean
Dee Kamanel says:
Sep 2, 2011
South Beach (Miami) Surfer here. The refraction topic is of obvious interest to me. The Reference to “heep” is what makes me write a Q 2 U though. Is this a reference to Uriah Heep from David Cooperfield?
Mike says:
Jun 2, 2011
Hey mates, i like the old version of the surf report better, can’t find the five day forecast; not the same feel, great content
Dean says:
Jun 2, 2011
The 5-Day was lost in the update late last night. Tory caught it and let me know. Sometimes WordPress has a mind of its own.
I’m always open to suggestions on re-formatting my forecast if you have ideas, though I do very much like the current auto-updated maps that are up there now.
Mike says:
May 30, 2011
Dean – Which is a better indicator of swell aimed at N. Florida when the source is the ‘underbelly’ of the bermuda high; the NE Bahama bouy or the W. Bermuda bouy?
Dean says:
Jun 2, 2011
I’d have to say the NE Bahamas bouy as the trade wind swell usually has some SE/ESE mixed in. It would be nice if we had bouys on transects spaced out at intervals of 300 miles extending into the Atlantic several thousand miles. Hey NOAA, couldn’t we justify these bouys based on the invaluable data (to forecast storm tracks) that could be gathered when hurricanes pass by them?
Taylor says:
May 24, 2011
Dean,
In the past few years the predictions for the upcoming hurricane season have been very inaccurate. What are your thoughts on this years hurricane season?Because I am ready for some SURF…hahaha.
Dean says:
May 25, 2011
Forecasters (and me-gut) haven’t been able to balance out the variable environmental factors to come up with a semi-accurate call last 2 ‘cane seasons (the major variables have been too varying). I think the pros forecast for a busy season is going to pan out, especially for the eastern GOMEX and the SE US coastline (including Florida) given the recent transition from La Nina to La Nada (ENSO-neutral) and the early, strong and stubbornly persistent positioning of the western extension of the Bermuda High (a longitudinally-sensitive steering “re-curve” component) so far this spring. NOAA’s call for 19 named storms is a bit too many for my taste, but I do believe the season will start with a topical storm in the Gulf in June, followed by an active July with 2 named systems (one a significant hurricane coming up from the Carribean that may impact or near Florida’s west coast), then a typically active period from mid-August into late September. I also think this will be a busy year for landfalling hurricanes in the US following last year’s big goose egg for US hits. The way the weather gods have been zeroing tornados in on major metropolitan areas, me-gut suggests that densely populated coastal cities such as Virginia Beach, Charleston, Miami, Tampa, Mobile, New Orleans, and Houston may be in the crosshairs, and there will be 6 tropical storm or hurricanes that landfall along the US coastline, with 3-4 of them landfalling as hurricanes (one a major with 140 mph+ winds at landfall) and 2 of them hitting Florida.
How’s that for sticking the neck out, Taylor?
Jason says:
May 20, 2011
Thanks for all the work you put into the surf forecast, Dean. Its the best!
Dan R says:
May 16, 2011
Forgot to provide the link to the map: http://secoora.org/maps/
Dean says:
May 16, 2011
Thank you, Dan. Many usefull data definition layers in the SECOORA map.
Dan R says:
May 16, 2011
Dean,
Thanks for the link to the SECOORA asset inventory. We also have an interactive map of the platforms that users can use to see the most recent measurements by clicking on the desired platform. There you can also click on the observations and view a graph of the last 24 hours for the desired observation. We’re always wanting to get feedback from the users on what new features would be useful as well.
Dan
University of South Carolina
SECOORA
Jack says:
May 11, 2011
Dean, I live in jacksonville beach, will i need to drive south to get some good surf or will the swell make it in our window?
lou@blue says:
May 11, 2011
hey jack, you don’t need to travel to st a. to catch waves in the days to come. lowtide at the poles (n. wind) little talbot(pt s. wind). for incoming with (se,s,sw. wind) check north jetty or n. side jax pier. of course st a. is also a great place to surf as well. either way north florida will pick up the swell so go surf where you’re comfortable and have fun.
Dean says:
May 11, 2011
jax beach should catch the bulk of the swell just fine. it will be somewhat larger down south from st aug down to the cape given the orientation of the coastline.
Curly says:
May 6, 2011
Good forecast Dean. It cleaned up real nice by about 6:00 pm. We had a short shower at 5:30 pm north of Vilano Beach, the wind turned off-shore, then it turned really glassy. Beautiful Friday evening session.
Dean says:
May 7, 2011
same down south- twas worth the $4/gal to catch several hours of semi-glass fri evening before the size drop with the small/flat spell i’m forecastin to settlin.
Glenn Lane says:
May 4, 2011
As I surf in NSB, I find Dean’s wave height predictions a little conservative, but otherwise spot on. Very savvy report, THANK YOU DEAN. If you do only two sites, add Crown Tropical Weather and you are covered.
Dean says:
May 4, 2011
if you’re surfing the swell magnet peaks at the inlet, add a foot to my forecast and it shoul be spot-on.
justin o'rourke says:
Apr 24, 2011
dean’s surf report is the only reason i have the internet on my phone
EGULL says:
Apr 22, 2011
I think Dean is referring Easterly Wave to a weak tropical wave moving across the Atlantic, which is early this time of year.
Dean says:
Apr 23, 2011
yep.
Tom says:
Apr 20, 2011
Dean as always thanks for the coverage. I was wondering what exactly is an “Easterly Wave”? You just said it with excitement like its a rare thing or something. And also why is it good if its going to be bringing us onshore winds like you said? just trying to learn more about the weathers effect on our surf. thanks again -Tom
Dean says:
Apr 23, 2011
we’d have onshore winds each day even w/o the easterly wave approaching due to the strong Bermuda High set up. excited? yep. the wave, even though weak, will tack some energy onto the lengthy E/ESE fetch on the underside (belly) big BH, and i like seeing this bread-n-butter favorable wave-generating summer weather pattern so early. normally we don’t see it until late May or June. may be a harbinger of an active ‘cane season if western Atlantic SST’s crest 80F and continue to climb through the low 80′s.
ccru says:
Apr 20, 2011
If you had to pick between Saturday and Monday morning (4/23 or 4/25), which do you think will be better?
Dean says:
Apr 23, 2011
saturday and sunday mornings. onshore flow should freshen a bit Monday/Tuesday with the remenants of the eastlery wave getting closer.
Sam says:
Apr 20, 2011
I love your forecasts but man, I’m starting to think I need a Ph.D. to understand them. We need a forecast for idiots with a big dumb flashing red arrow pointing at the good surf days that reads: “hei dummees big surrf on dis day!!1!”
Example: “consistent onshore winds forecast to freshen in reaction to an easterly wave (yes, EASTERLY WAVE!) tightening the gradient as it approachs the Bahamas.”
I don’t know if this is a good thing or a bad thing!?!
I’m only kidding, of course, the forecasts are awesome. Keep up the good work!
Dean says:
Apr 23, 2011
sam,
if the easterly wave tightens the gradient, enhances/prolongs the swell, and gets you wet- it’s a good thing. you don’t need a phd to understand my somewhat ramblin’ spew. just relax and follow along… you will be educated and possibly have an improved chance of scoring meaningfull surf.
SSurf says:
Apr 20, 2011
@Dean, thanks man that was it. Appreciate the detailed forcast you put out. Shootz
Stephen says:
Apr 19, 2011
Hey Dean,
Just wanted to say thanks for taking the time out of your day to keep this forecast up to date.
dean says:
Apr 19, 2011
aint gonna beeno stalefish inda 5day less sumthin sirius cumsup
SSurf says:
Apr 17, 2011
Hello Dean, the ocp page above with the swell heights, can you post the direct link? I’ve combed the site over and can’t find the ocean map. Much thanks.
Dean says:
Apr 18, 2011
try this link…
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ira1.gif
if not, try this think link and click on the thumbnail…
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml
Kev Bot says:
Apr 17, 2011
To Mr.Dean and the crew at Surf Station,
I would like to give some thanks for the most excellent surf forecasts for N.E. Florida I have been educated with for the past three years. Not only is the forecast ‘spot-on’, all of you at Surf Station do an excellent job of keeping us informed throughout the day. Keep up the good work and stay stoked!
Much Appreciation,
Kev Bot
Oh yeah, one more thing my boys and I love Surf Station 2!! Y’all SICK WITH IT!!!!!
Robert Namie says:
Apr 16, 2011
Surf Station is the best Surf Shop/Surf Report site on the planet. Tory has consistently held his employees to the highest standard of customer service excellence I have ever come across. I have frequented The Surf Station for over 20 years now and I have always been treated with the utmost kindness, professional courtesy and respect. It simply did not matter if I knew the person or not,the feeling of being taken care of was always there.
Dean your forecasts are the bomb and I appreciate all the hard work it takes to provide us with daily info. Keep up the good work.
Tory to you and all you employ you should be proud of the way your company is reflected to the public,and believe me great customer service is a lost art. I love the Surf Station and everything it does to keep me in Surfboards, Waves and a lifestyle I will die having lived to the fullest. Hats off!!
Robert
Tory Strange says:
Apr 9, 2011
Yup. I so agree it can be very frustrating. It’s all a necessary evil though, still, at this point. The website on the front end and back end is so changing and evolving each and every month, even by the day. To do this, lots of back end changes have to happen. And of course those make us guys on the front end having to adapt to the changes and this can be quite frustrating if the communication has broken down.
The good news is, we are pushing forward and getting better, with the website much better than it was a year ago, thanks to the changes…
Dean says:
Apr 9, 2011
wordpress ’tis seamless for dabetterpart. a headsup from the tech end when changes are otw ’tis all wways appreciated.
Jeff V says:
Apr 5, 2011
Dean, how many times have they changed your administrator interface to update the blog. Geez!
Dean says:
Apr 7, 2011
I don’t know the technical terms associated with the changes to my ability to update the forecast portion of the “blog”, but ’tis somewhat frustrating when it goes down.