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Surf Forecast

Posted by Dean

COASTAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS (Issued 7am 3/11/10):

Following multiple blasts of Arctic and Canadian air (accompanied by small/cold surf) that ended the coldest February in over 50 years, milder weather will return for most of the work week as a much smaller version of the early work week’s ground swell trickles in at occ 1′ mid-week, continuing the decline in size and consistency as the work week progresses.

Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Here is the link to the 10m Florida wind map loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/adas/ADAS_wind.php

And here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly

5-DAY WIND/WAVE FORECAST

THURSDAY: Moist wind increasing S/SW 8-18 mph with waves 1/2-occ 1′ in moderate period SE swell. Showers and isolated t-storms will be possible in the afternoon.

FRIDAY: Wind SW/W 10-20 mph and gusty with waves 1/2′ or so in very inconsistent, small ESE swell.

SATURDAY: Wind W/WNW 14-22 mph and gusty with waves 1/2′ (+/- 1/2′).

SUNDAY: Cool NW wind 5-15 mph with waves near flat.

NEXT WEEK: Tuesday could see a small/brief NE pulse-type swell push down the east coast. I will be in the Florida Panhandle for fire training. May or may not have access to pc/internet. Tory, Please leave the old forecast up as it will help to have a template if I get the opportunity to update while away.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION: The El Nino winter roller coaster ride of changeable weather and around the clock winds will become active again this week as a series of baby lows form over the northern Gulf and spin around the base of a large mid-continental low. Air and water temperatures that have been well below normal for this time of year will finally warm toward seasonal levels through the end of the work week, though the chilly ocean temps will lag behind given the latent damage done by the run of cold that we endured in February and early March. Unfortunately, with models are indicating no swell sources out in the Atlantic, so waves will trend downward to near flat through the period.

SURF TEMP DISCUSSION/PROGNOSTICATION: WT’s ARE HOOVERING IN THE MID 50′S St AUGUSTINE SOUTH TO NSB (56F ON 3/9), UPPER 50′S TO NEAR 60 FROM NSB SOUTH TO COCOA BEACH. Any gains in WT’s will be slow to occur in early March with mirroring the effect of the prolonged onslaught of CANADIAN/POLAR AIR MASSES RIDING STRONG NW/N WINDS.

In my many years of surfing Florida’s east coast, I only remember a few that started March with WT’s in the low to mid 50’s north of the Cape.

Klondike, how’s the neoprene holding out? Even though the 2-week stretch of brutal cold in early January and the month-long fridge of wickedly small to flat February is behind us, somewhat modified Canadian air masses will continue to push strong cold fronts deep into the south in early March, keeping wt’s north of Flagler Beach holding in the mid-50’s into mid-March. In anticipation of the prolonged cold wt’s and additional swells during the strongest El Nino in a decade (and the 3rd coldest winter since records began in north/central Florida), Tory has kept a good stock of booties, gloves, and hoods in stock at the Surf Station to compliment the huge inventory of 2/3mm full suits. Take the short drive down to the shop to keep those extremeties toasty through what is shaping up to be a very cold winter.

Link to HYPOTHERMIA PREVENTION/WARNING SIGNS/TIPS (good information for winter watersports enthusiasts considering the ongoing well below normal ocean temps):

http://www.boatsafe.com/nauticalknowhow/hypothermia.htm

TROPICAL OUTLOOK (will resume in late Spring 2010)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for the hint of winter lows forming off the southeast coast of the US:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp

Monitor this sat loop of the Atlantic for spin ups:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8ir/g8irjava.html

This loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic will give a heads up when a swell may be headed our way:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell

and a closer look at the southeast US:

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime