Surf Forecast

Posted by: Dean

5-DAY WIND/WAVE FORECAST (issued 7 am 9/2*)

   (*subject to revision as new data becomes available)

The tropical Atlantic is very busy to start the month of September. WE ARE IN FOR HEAD-HIGH TO SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD HURRICANE GROUND SWELLS THURSDAY! The peak of Earls’s size will thunder in through the morning, though it will be late afternoon before a more favorable offshore NW wind helps the form.  Earl’s track is much closer to Florida’s East coast than Danielle, placing the catagory 4 Major Hurricane (GENERATING SEAS UP TO 48 FEET OFFSHORE!!) within 400 miles of Florida’s east coast pre-dawn Thursday morning.  Earl’s size Thursday should be cut in half for Friday, but with very favorable offshore winds forecast well into the afternoon this will be the day to get it.

THURSDAY: Wind starting out sideoffshore from the NNW/N 7-17 mph, backing more side-offshore from the NW in the afternnoon with breaking wave size starting out at 4-6′ (occ + bombs at times) in large ESE/E/ENE hurricane ground swell. Following the mid-afternoon high tide, size will ease downward to 3-5′ (occ +) and with the wind lightening up the form should improve.

FRIDAY: Wind WSW/SW 5-15 mph through the morning into early afternoon with wave size dropping quite a bit, starting out at 2-3′ (occ +) in residual ENE/NE Hurricane Earl ground swell, with the sets becoming less consistent by mid-afternoon.  An S/SE sea breeze will ripple to bump up surface conditions as the afternoon progresses.

SATURDAY: Wind W/WNW 5-13 mph through the morning, shifting to N/NE in the afternoon with waves down some more to 1.5-occ 2.5′ in residual/mixed NE/ESE swell.

SUNDAY: Wind WSW/SW 5-12 mph, shifting to east by early afternoon with waves holding at 1-2′ (occ +) in mixed direction swell.

MONDAY: Will update later.

DEAN’S FORECAST DISCUSSION: The larger swell from Major Hurricane Earl should be accompanied by favorable offshore local winds late Thursday and a good part of Friday.  Here is the forecast for offshore waters to the east of Florida:

GENERAL/SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION: Surf was very small through most of the first 3 weeks of August, with the main relief from the duldroms coming from the Bermuda high trade winds over the western Atlantic (good swell source through mid-summer for small/rideable surf) or back-door cold fronts (rare in August and early September). Following the remarkable absense of tropical activity during this period, activity (AND SURF!) will dramatically accelerate as we enter the season’s historical period of greatest tropical cyclone activity, and the last week of August will start a series of tropical systems traversing the open Atlantic. The tropical Atlantic will continue to produce sizeable swells through the last week of August and well into September.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK  (Updated 5 am on 8/31) :   Tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic has ramped up to start the month of September. The very warm SST’s along with more favorable environmental conditions currently found throughout the Atlantic basin will insure that a series of hurricanes and/or tropical storms generate a week+ long wave train of moderate to long period swells over the western Atlantic from August 28th through the first week in September.

Hurricane Earl’s Forecast Track:

Hurricane Earl became a major hurricane early this week, coming a lot closer than Danielle. Consequently, we will see a considerably larger swell from Earl than Danielle, lingering into the start of the Labor Day weekend.  Earl will merit close attention for North Carolina’s Outer Banks and the New England region given the forecast track that has him smacking Hatteras and Cape Cod with his outer fringe tropical storm force winds Thursday evening and on Friday.

Following Earl is Fiona, forecast to either fizzle or turn north in the coming days:

And finally, Gaston brings up the rear:

Following the non-stop series of waves that moved off the west coast of Africa the past 7-10 days, the Atlantic Ocean will take a brief breather with fewer systems on the prowl following Labor Day weekend.

For updates and additional discussion, please visit the Central Florida Hurricane Center website: http://flhurricane.com/

Alex was the first June Atlantic hurricane since Allison in 1995, Bonnie became the second storm of the season in mid-July, and Colin brought us a decent (though short-lived) easterly ground swell for the first full weekend of August. The we had a decent swell from distant Hurricane Danielle (expecting a much larger/cleaner swell from Earl, followed by a few Fiona leftovers?). Conditions will remain favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic from late August through the first week in September. SST’s will continue to climb through the low 80′s, heading toward a peak in the mid-80′s: http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0 Off Florida’s east coast, SST’s will climb into the low 80′s, and I expect that the potential for significant development in our Atlantic swell window will greatly increase as the climatological September 10th peak of tropical activity approaches with tropical waves,  disturbances, tropical storms and hurricanes tracking in our general direction.  Given that shear has finally let up over the western Atlantic and SST’s are leveling off near seasonal maximas, I expect activity to accelerate dramatically into early September.  It only takes one hurricane passing near or over your house to make for a bad year, so the critical question is what will be the favored track for this busy season?  Stay tuned for intermittent updates.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Here is a link to S. Atlantic buoy #41049:  http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41049 (a little over 1000 miles to the ESE) to monitor trends in the upstream fetch for indication that another trade wind swell is building well out to sea and will arrive in 24-48 hours.

Here is a link to the NE Bahamas buoy #41047:  http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047 (nearly 600 miles to the ESE) to determine if an ESE swell is skirting the north edge of the Bahamas bank and should start filtering in within 12-24 hours.

Here is the link to the 10m Florida wind map loop to monitor the daily SW/S/SE  land/sea breeze interaction everpresent in the summertime local wind field:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/adas/ADAS_wind.php

SURF TEMP DISCUSSION/PROGNOSTICATION :  Water temps are holding a few degrees either side of 80F. I expect WT’s to eventually uptick to a seasonal max in the low 80′s in August unless a more significant cold water upwelling event occurs.

2010 is forecast to have above normal tropical cyclone activity and August should see a significant increase in named storms and hurricanes.

Here is NOAA’s official outlook (issued May 27th): http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

NOAA in a nutshell: 14-23 named tropical storms, 8-14 hurricanes, 3-7 major hurricanes.

Doc Gray’s updated forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf

Doc in a nutshell: 18 named tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.

Here is Intellecast’s Atlantic weather page with excellent links to monitor tropical activity: http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticForecast.aspx

Here is the link to monitor the favored region of the Gulf of Mexico for early season activity: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Here are water vapor loops to monitor moisture available in the atmosphere for tropical cyclogenesis: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html Water vapor loop link: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Finally, here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure once a system spins up:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

NWS MELBOURNE MARINE WEB LETTER

Cool information on the latest east central Florida coastal forecast products: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=letter0210

Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys):  http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly

Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp

Monitor this sat loop of the Atlantic for spin ups:  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8ir/g8irjava.html This loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic will give a heads up when a swell may be headed our way: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime Finally, here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml

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