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Surf Forecast

Posted by Dean

COASTAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS (Issued 7am 3/15/10):

The work week will start out very small (<1′) with the moderately strong NW wind gradually easing after Monday. A deep/sprawling low pressure system will begin to consolidate in the Atlantic 300 miles ENE of Hatteras to start the work week, then slowly drift to the ESE into mid-week. Another weaker low should form just upstream of this low north of the Bahamas on Thursday, adding to the NE fetch from the parent low. This prolonged NE fetch will extend a NE ground swell train over the western Atlantic through the remainder of the work week, propagating moderate-sized NE ground swells into local waters starting late Tuesday through the remainder of the work week, peaking in size Thursday with favorable offshore winds. The leftover/residual ENE ground swell will gradually diminish heading into the weekend.

Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Here is the link to the 10m Florida wind map loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/adas/ADAS_wind.php

And here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly

5-DAY WIND/WAVE FORECAST

(Please note: I will be in fire training in the panhandle all week, and may or may not have access to pc/internet. Tory, Please leave the old forecast up as it will help to have a template if I get the opportunity to update while away.)

MONDAY: Wind NW 7-17 mph and gusty with waves 1/2′.

TUESDAY: Wind NW/N 5-15 mph with waves up some by late in the day to 1-occ 1.5′ in fledgling NNE swell.

WEDNESDAY: Wind N/NW 5-13 mph with waves building during the day to 1-2′ (occ + sets pm) in NE ground swell.

THURSDAY: Wind backing to NW/W 5-14 mph with waves leveling off in size at 1.5-2.5′ (occ +) in NE ground swell.

FRIDAY: Wind NW/N 5-13 mph with waves 1.5-occ 2.5′ in lingering ENE ground swell.

SATURDAY: Wind light NW early, becoming NE 5-12 mph by afternoon with waves dropping down to 1-occ 2′ in diminishing, less consistent ENE ground swell.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION: The El Nino winter roller coaster ride of changeable weather and around the clock winds has become much more active again as a series of baby “lowlets” formed along the Gulf coast spinning around the base of the huge parent low located mid-continent. Air/water temperatures that have been well below normal for this time of year will warm significantly through the forecast period, though the chilly ocean water temps will still be below seasonal levels due to the damage done by the run of cold that we endured in February and early March.

SURF TEMP DISCUSSION/PROGNOSTICATION: WT’s ARE HOOVERING IN THE UPPER 50′S TO NEAR 60F FROM St. AUGUSTINE SOUTH TO NSB. Any gains in WT’s will be slow through mid-March given the frequent FROPA’s re-inforcing the below normal WT’s from accrued during February’s record run of cold, then accelerate nicely through the last half of the month into the mid 60’s as longer spring days filled with strong sunshine and periodic episodes of strong SE/S/SW winds continue to pump warmer water up from the south.

In my many years of surfing Florida’s east coast, I only remember a few that started March with WT’s in the low to mid 50’s north of the Cape.

Klondike, how’s the neoprene holding out? Even though the 2-week stretch of brutal cold in early January and the month-long fridge of wickedly small to flat February is behind us, modified Canadian air masses will still push a few more strong cold fronts deep into the south through March, keeping wt’s north of Flagler Beach below the 65F spring suit comfort cut-off through most of the month. In anticipation of the below normal wt’s and spring swells during the strongest El Nino in a decade (following the 3rd coldest winter since records began in north/central Florida), Tory has kept a good stock of booties, gloves, and hoods in stock at the Surf Station to compliment the huge inventory of 2/3mm full suits. Take the short drive down to the shop to keep those extremeties toasty through what is shaping up to be a very cold winter.

Link to HYPOTHERMIA PREVENTION/WARNING SIGNS/TIPS (good information for winter watersports enthusiasts considering the ongoing well below normal ocean temps):

http://www.boatsafe.com/nauticalknowhow/hypothermia.htm

TROPICAL OUTLOOK (will resume in late Spring 2010)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for the hint of winter lows forming off the southeast coast of the US:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp

Monitor this sat loop of the Atlantic for spin ups:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8ir/g8irjava.html

This loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic will give a heads up when a swell may be headed our way:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell

and a closer look at the southeast US:

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime